August 5, 2012 posted by Chuck Anderson

Trade Deadline Fallout

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Shane Victorino, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers

A few days past the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline new roles are more defined and less speculation is required to assess the fantasy impact of all the transactions.  Major leaguers are the focus here, for an assessment of the prospects traded Jim Callis of Baseball America ranks them all.  None directly involved in any deals are worth claiming this year, and most will not be helpful in 2013 either.


Shane Victorino:  2012 is his least effective offensive season since his pre-breakout 2006.  His power stroke is conspicuously absent as his ISO dropped from .212 to .138.  He is also very weak against right handed pitching.  The Dodgers are a worse hitting team than the Phillies, and this year the park factors are comparable.  He is still running and is one of eleven players with 25 or more steals.


Tangential Impact:  Domonic Brown and John Mayberry are playing every day in Philadelphia.  Brown is the eye-catching name but his stats have not improved since reaching Triple-A in 2010.  Watch him, but feel no need to invest.


Paul Maholm, Reed Johnson:  Johnson is the fourth outfielder in Atlanta, capable of playing any of the spots but unlikely to start more than a couple of games a week.  Maholm has improved throughout the year

  April May June July
K/BB 1.67 1.73 2.89 3.25
xFIP 5.31 4.43 3.98 3.61

He is the #5 starting pitcher over the last 30 days so he is worth a look.


Tangential Impact:  Travis Wood, Justin Germano, and Chris Volstad comprise the back of the Cubs’ rotation.  That are some strong matchups for any opposing hitter.


Brad Lincoln, Travis Snider:  Lincoln collected five holds and a save in his last ten appearances for Pittsburgh.  He pitched 3.1 innings for Toronto on Friday so it seems he has a different role.  He is throwing well with a 8.86 K/9 and 3.94 K/BB.  Snider started four straight games before Sunday.  There is nothing new to report here, he is dominant in Triple-A but very flawed when facing major league pitching.  Track his BB/K ratio (0.28 in his career), if it starts improving he could become a factor.


Tangential Impact:  Rajai Davis is starting every day, at least while Jose Bautista remains out.  Davis is one of four 30 SB men.  Anthony Gose will play more as well, possibly preparing him for a starting role next year.


Brandon League:  The Dodgers are using him in the late innings but he is not supplanting Kenley Jansen.  Fantasy teams have little use for a middle reliever with a 5.67 K/9 and 1.53 K/BB.  He still has a big fastball but strikes out under 6.5/9 since 2010.


Tangential Impact:  With Steve Delebar also moving on Seattle called up Carter Capps.  He had nineteen saves and a 1.63 FIP in Double-A.  He could be a factor for saves in 2013.


Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants

Hunter Pence, Nate Schierholtz:  Pence moves to a more challenging offensive environment but overall his change in value is negligible.  He has 90 career PAs at AT&T park with a .305/.344/.524 line.  His numbers are off slightly this year, but in 2011 a .361 BABIP fueled what could easily turn out to be a career year.  Schierholtz is in the outfield mix in Philadelphia, and his 4-10 start could earn him more playing time.  His ISO is trending up in his late twenties.  He is not known as a power hitter but moving to Citizens Bank Park could help him reach fifteen home runs in a full season.


Tangential Impact:  Gregor Blanco will have a tougher time getting into the Giants’ lineup.  He has not hit well since May but his nineteen steals were useful in NL-only leagues.


Edward Mujica:  He still has a stellar walk rate but his strikeouts are declining.  His xFIP has increased from 2.65 to 4.20 since 2010.  He is not a specialist, he allows a .310 wOBA to hitters from each side of the plate.


Tangential Impact:  There is little immediate change but Zack Cox is far likelier to find a regular job in Miami than he was in St. Louis.  A .294 OBP in Triple-A has hurt his stock, so he has work to do.


Gaby Sanchez, Gorkys Hernandez:  Sanchez has started two games for Pittsburgh and pinch hit on two other occasions.  He offers a platoon compliment to Garrett Jones.  Hernandez started four straight games in Miami thanks to some injuries to other outfielders.  He went hitless in thirteen at bats, displaying the sub-standard offense that has kept him in the minors.


Ryan Dempster:  He obviously faces a greater challenge in the American League, and received a rude welcome from the Angels.  His .254 BABIP against and 80.5% strand rate are due to correct.  He is still worth owning but he is not the staff ace that he pitched like in the first half.


Tangential Impact:  Dempster’s acquisition and Scott Feldman’s strong run keeps Alexi Ogando in the bullpen.  Roy Oswalt is also headed there.


Casey McGahee, Chad Qualls:  McGahee started one game in New York but since Mark Teixeira’s wrist is not problematic he will be benched most of the time.  The Yankees prefer Eric Chavez or Jayson Nix at third.  Qualls is far from the pitcher he was in Arizona, he has a 4.99 K/9 and 5.18 FIP.


Jonathan Broxton:  He loses save chances as Aroldis Chapman and Sean Marshall remain the lead dogs in the Reds’ bullpen.  He also brings a  very low 4.2% HR/FB into Cincinnati.


Tangential Impact:  Greg Holland takes the reins in Kansas City.  His 12.31 K/9 largely offsets a 4.97 BB/9.  He also has a career high 1.96 GB/FB this year.  Grab him in any league.


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