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July 15, 2012 posted by Paul Greco

Pitching Matchups to Watch for the Week of July 16th

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Wade Miley, ARI

Wade Miley @ CIN (7/16) & v HOU (7/20) – I told you to jump off the Miley bandwagon two starts ago and I was right. Regression can be a brutal thing. Don’t get sucked into the fact that one of his two stats is against the ‘Stros. Worthy of a start in NL-only formats and even then I think you’re playing with fire.

Zach McAllister @ TB (7/16) & v BAL (7/21) – A 4 to 1 K/BB rate gets it done and a low left on base % hints at some better luck in the future. Wins are tough to come by in Cleveland but otherwise McAllister looks solid. Start in 15-team or deeper formats and watch in shallower leagues.

Jeff Karstens @ COL (7/16) & v MIA (7/22) – I was really digging Karstens before the shoulder injury put him on the shelf. He’s a finesse pitcher who mixes four pitches, generating a 2.91 K/BB rate last season and a 2.67 ratio the year before. In 32 innings this year it’s 4.80 – there seems to be some skills emerging here. Throw in the fact that the Pirates are hitting a bit lately and have an elite closer in the 9th and he is a great play for the second half. Add and start immediately in 15-team or deeper formats (yeah I know we don’t like Coors) and consider adding in 12-team leagues if you have a bench spot to speculate with.

Homer Bailey v AZ (7/17) & v MIL (7/22) – It seems like I tout Bailey on a weekly basis. Once in a while it’s justified. He shows me just enough from time to time to keep me interested. I still believe in some solid upside as well as the possibility of a serious shoulder injury. On a week to week basis either trend could emerge. I would start in 15-team or deeper formats and probably 12-team leagues. This is usually the situation when Bailey screws me so don’t hate me too much if it doesn’t work out.

Bartolo Colon v TEX (7/17) & v NYY (7/22) – Colon has been money all year and especially since coming off the DL. These are ugly matchups but hey, they’re at home! He’s almost worth a gamble in 10-team leagues with the two starts. Let’s give him the nod in 12-team or deeper formats.

Joe Kelly @ MIL (7/17) – Don’t get sucked in to thinking Kelly is the next ‘out of nowhere’ guy for the Cards. He has bad control but a 93.7 mph fastball and 47% GB% bear monitoring. Watch in deeper formats but not worthy of starting yet.

Ubaldo Jimenez @ TB (7/19) – He’s seems to be coming around but is still on pace for 111 walks. At this point I might pick on weaker teams with Jimenez but Tampa can hit enough. He looked great against them last week but before you throw that in my face remember it’s a sample size of 1. Start in AL-only.

Chris Young @ WAS (7/19) – He’s looked decent so far but I don’t trust shoulder injuries long-term. In the short-term the Nats can hit. Young is a really nice start in NL-only leagues but don’t get excited in anything more shallow.

Tim Lincecum @ PHL (7/20) – What to do with Tim Lincecum this week? The ouija board says start in 12-team or deeper formats but I don’t have a flippin’ clue.

Luis Mendoza v MIN (7/20) – I don’t have substantial faith that Mendoza will be anything worth remembering in the annals of fantasy baseball. Having said that a 24 to 6 K/BB rate over his last 5 starts gives reason for a second glance. Minnesota can’t really hit. Something to watch and a reasonable start in AL-only leagues.

Ben Sheets @ WAS (7/21) – One needs look no further than Chris Capuano to see what a once promising pitcher can do when finally healthy – even after years of absence and resurfacing well after their prime. The ERA in two AA starts was gnarly but a 10 to 1 K/BB rate over 10.2 innings is great. Hard to imagine why they’d rush him to start after only 10 innings coming off a long break. This is an upside play and regardless of his debut against the Mets on Sunday I’ll be in for a lusty FAAB bid. Grab and stash in 12-team or deeper formats.

Paul finished the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football season as the #1 Weekly Rankings & Projections winner of the 411Fantasy Expert Challenge. He also finished 2nd in the FantasyPros.com Expert Draft Accuracy Challenge in 2011. Top 10 Finisher in the FSWA Fantasy Football Draft Projections. Paul is also apart of baseballs elite as a member of Tout Wars. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulGreco
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