Fantasy Football
August 2, 2012 posted by Paul Greco

Paul’s Personal Fantasy Football Picks : Dump On QB

Paul’s Personal Fantasy Football Picks : Dump On QB
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Yesterday I spread the love to five QBs that you can target at different points in your fantasy football draft. Today, I take a look at those QB that I will not be targeting in my drafts.  My reasons may vary: from players on their respective rosters, down to gut feelings and strength of schedule.  The one thing you will notice though is there is no way I’m drafting any of these QBs.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals QB

Andy Dalton – Cincinnati Bengals : Last year seemed to be the year of the rookie QB. Along with Carolina Panthers’ phenom, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton busted onto the scene. It was a good story and I’m sure many are looking for him to improve on his numbers from a year ago. Me, I don’t see it happening.

Dalton has one of the more brutal schedules of any QB in the second-half of the season, especially during your playoff run (WK 14-17 – Cowboys, Eagles, Steelers and Ravens). In four games last year against the Steelers and Ravens, Dalton averaged 227 yards with four TD and five INT. Just looking at that schedule made me pee my pants a little. I’m sure Dalton will be having nightmares even before he faces those teams.

One bit of good news for Dalton is that WR Jordan Shipley (Sleeper WR) will be returning to the team as a WR3. Shipley showed last year he had the ability to run crisp routes, and he plays a heady game giving Dalton a nice second or third option on each play. Unfortunately, it won’t be enough for me to want to draft Dalton. My Projection : 3,300+ YDS, 20 TD, 15 INT

Josh Freeman – Tampa Bay Buccaneers : Josh Freeman, to me, is the one QB on this list who can really prove me wrong. Last season, on SiriusXM, I tried to bash it into the heads of owners to stay away from Freeman, and for those that did, you’re welcome.

This off-season the Buccaneers’ front office made it clear that they would add offensive weapons; and boy did they.  Not only did they drop big coin on WR Vincent Jackson and TE Dallas Clark, but they traded back into the first RD of the 2012 draft and selected Boise State RB Doug Martin.

If Freeman can’t top career highs in yards (3592) and TD (25) in 2012 he should be put in the shark pool with Kyle Boller, David Carr and Tim Couch. My Projection : 3,400+ YDS, 21 TD, 18 INT

Joe Flacco – Baltimore Ravens : Ah, the self-proclaimed “Best QB” in the NFL. Where to start with Joe Flacco?  Well, he has the best arm in the NFL according to ESPN’s Ron Jaworski; you know, the same guy who was booted out of the Monday Night Football booth. I guess he wanted to say something that would get the attention of real football guys!

Over the course of the last three years, Flacco has been the model of consistency, throwing between 3,610 and 3,622 yards passing and between 20 and 25 touchdowns.  What does that spell? BORING! There is nothing there that excites me.  As long as the Ravens’ offense goes through RB Ray Rice we will never know if Flacco could/would be an elite QB. You should only target Flacco if you get desperate; he will NOT guide you to a championship no matter what he, or Jaws, says about his ability. My Projection : 3,600+ YDS, 22 TD, 15 INT

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears QB

Jay Cutler – Chicago Bears : Well, Jay Cutler got what he wanted this offseason and it wasn’t more offensive weapons, I’m talking about a new OC (Mike Tice) who will hopefully protect his blind side. Last season he missed six games because of injuries and Cutler didn’t send Mike Martz any Christmas gifts.

There is a lot to like about Cutler for the 2012 season. He has a super-stud RB in Matt Forte, a pretty awesome back RB in Michael Bush and the Bears added his favorite receiver from back in the Denver Broncos’ days, WR Brandon Marshall.

As much as Tice will be a solution for the past protection problems, he may end up hurting Cutler’s production. Tice is a conservative play caller, which means we may not see a lot of down field action; emphasis on “may not.”  Cutler’s goal is to gain Tice’s trust so that he can let him loose. If this happens there is potential that Cutler could end up as a top five QB, don’t laugh, with the weapons he has the potential is there. My Projection : WORST 3,300+ YDS, 22 TD, 15 INT BEST 4,300+, 35 TD, 16 INT

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Buffalo Bills : Every important, and not important, statistical category for Ryan Fitzpatrick improved in 2011. He saw his TD total increase 24 (career high), but at the same time his INT went to 23 (career high). His passing yards increased to 3,832(career high), but it took him 129 extra passing attempts than the year before (career high).  All that said, this guy threw a hell of a lot of passes last season and only managed a 6.7 yards-per-attempt. Compare that to Falcons QB Matt Ryan (#10 QB on my list) who averaged 7.4 and you can start to better understand why he’s on my “Dump” list.

Some “experts” may point out his additional pass attempts in the fourth quarter due to the fact the Bills played from behind a lot, but to be honest, I don’t give a crap. I care about the bottom line: is this guy producing for me, yes or no?  If not, then we have to say “Bu-Bye!” Fitzpatrick is a nice QB2 for your team, but in deep leagues, try to stay away and focus on getting a QB early. My Projection : 3,400+ YDS, 22 TD, 19 INT

Paul finished the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football season as the #1 Weekly Rankings & Projections winner of the 411Fantasy Expert Challenge. He also finished 2nd in the Expert Draft Accuracy Challenge in 2011. Top 10 Finisher in the FSWA Fantasy Football Draft Projections. Paul is also apart of baseballs elite as a member of Tout Wars. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulGreco

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