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May 28, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Latest Closer Identifier Algorithm Results May 28-Amended

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Drew Storen, Nationals

The Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) chalks up another three hits to run its record of correct predictions of demotions from the closer role to an impressive 12-1 (I hadn’t counted Brandon League at the time of this original article). The record so far is excellent, and even better than I ever dreamed, but it must be tempered with the fact that we only determine when a player is a “hit” or “miss” when there is a job change, a la Schrodinger’s Cat.

So, at the end of the season it is posisble for a lot of “lose” statuses that kept the job to become “misses” all at once. That said, it should be clear by now that the original premise that an algorithm will predict the future better than any group of experts is looking very strong.

Also, we are not counting ascensions to the role as “hits.” If we did that the record would be far better. But the point is to predict failure. If we ignore the first criteria we can boost the “hit” rate somewhere close to 95%, but that might introduce a double-counting bias in that one or two players might see-saw in and out of the role. So, we leave it to demotions only for now. It does not purport to predict ascensions yet, but only demotions.

The process? If the answers to all questions are “yes” then CIA predicts a “hold.” If any one is “no” then the algorithm terminates and issues a “lose” status.

1.Does the player have a share of the job now?

2.Does the current closer have a BaseballHQ.com BPV over 80

3.Is his K/BB rate over 2.5?

4. Is his K rate over 7.0?

Here are the latest results:

Pitcher CIA result Reason for Change, if any
Jim Johnson Lose
Alfredo Aceves Lose
Addison Reed Hold
Chris Perez Hold Finally gets K/BB over 2.5
Jose Valverde Lose
Jon Broxton Lose
Scott Downs Lose
Ernesto Frieri Hold Won share of job-hit
Matt Capps Lose
Rafael Soriano Lose K/BB under 2.3
Brian Fuentes Lose
Brandon League Lose  Lost job- HIT
Fernando Rodney Hold
Joe Nathan Hold
Casey Janssen Hold
JJ Putz Hold
Craig Kimbrel Hold
Rafael Dolis Lose Lost job–HIT
Shawn Camp Hold Added
James Russell Lose Added
Sean Marshall Hold Lost job-Miss
Aroldis Chapman Hold
Rafael Betancourt Hold
Brett Myers Lose
Kenley Jansen Hold
Heath Bell Lose Added back-role unclear
Steve Cishek Hold Role unclear-might be a change next week
John Axford Hold
Frank Francisco Lose close to “hold”
Jon Papelbon Hold
Joel Hanrahan Lose Will certainly make “hold status” soon
Dale Thayer Hold
Santiago Casilla Hold solidifying “hold” status
Jason Motte Hold
Henry Rodriguez Lose Lost job-Hit
Tyler Clippard
Hits Misses 
Brandon League Sean Marshall
Hector Santiago
Scott Downs
Jordan Walden
Brian Fuentes
Rafael Dolis
Heath Bell
Scott Downs
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Marmol
Javy Guerra
Grant Balfour
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