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July 8, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Latest Closer Identifier Algorithm Results – All-Star Break

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

Two changes this week. Rafael Soriano jumps into “hold” status, based on his sterling SV/SVO%. On the other hand, Heath Bell once again drops to “lose” status of letting up 7 ER in his last 7.2 IP. Like Brian Fuentes, CIA may chalk up multiple correct predictions at his expense. 

Other notes:

 Addison Reed is looking shaky, as all of his numbers are very close to CIA minimums. However, with his 13/14 SV/SVO he continues to get the job done, and is still a hold for now.

 Jonathon Broxton may end up being a pitcher that CIA simply gets wrong. His skill set is poor, his SV/SVO% is below CIA requirements, but he continues to keep a hold on the job. 

Scott Downs gets added in as he appears to have a solid share of the job. He is not nearly as good as Ernesto Frieri, but has the support of a manager who is venturing close to Dusty Baker levels of ineptitude.

Matt Capps is due back this week and he likely gets his job back. We included Glen Perkins as a technical matter, and it will be a shocking victory for CIA if Perkins keeps the job, as Capps has been on the “lose” list most of the year. My clinical analysis says Capps should get the job back in the short term, but that is why we are trying this experiment.

Similar comments apply for Bobby Parnell. He has the job as a technical matter, but Frank Francisco is a solid “hold.” As shocking a victory for CIA as Perkins might be, Parnell keeping the job would be an even more shocking loss for CIA. 

Tyler Clippard is starting to become interesting. His skill set is on the slow wane, and he, like Reed above, only marginally meets CIA’s minimum criteria. With Drew Storen on the mend, Clippard may present more danger than appears at first glance.

CIA correctly predicted that Fernando Rodney would keep the job, as did almost every sentient being. Technically this is not a victory for CIA since “hold” statuses can only be determined at the end of the season. 

Pitcher CIA result Reason for Change/Comments
Jim Johnson Hold  
Alfredo Aceves Hold  
Addison Reed Hold barely a “hold” but 13/14 in SV/SVO
Chris Perez Hold  
Jose Valverde Lose challenging for “worst closer” title
Jon Broxton Lose
Ernesto Frieri Hold  
Scott Downs Lose Added in–low K rate of 5.7
Matt Capps Lose due back 7/13. May not have the job.SV/SVO is one save away from “hold”
Glen Perkins Hold Status is uncertain-will monitor
Rafael Soriano Hold SV/SVO changes him to a hold.
Ryan Cook Lose skills improving-may get to “hold”
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold  
Fernando Rodney Hold held off Farnsworth upon Farnsworth’s return
Joe Nathan Hold  
Casey Janssen Hold  
J.J. Putz Hold  
Craig Kimbrel Hold  
Carlos Marmol Lose 6/6 since return in SV/SVO
Aroldis Chapman Hold  
Rafael Betancourt Hold  
Brett Myers Lose 18/20 in SV/SVO makes him close to “hold”
Kenley Jansen Hold  
Heath Bell Lose yet another change in status
John Axford Lose only a matter of time in our view
Frank Francisco Hold  
Bobby Parnell Hold technically on the list but close to 0% chance he holds the job, like Glen Perkins
Jon Papelbon Hold  
Joel Hanrahan Hold  
Huston Street Hold  
Santiago Casilla Hold  
Jason Motte Hold  
Tyler Clippard Hold Skills on the wane-possibly vulnerable
     
     
Hits Misses  
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall  
Scott Downs Steve Cishek  
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer  
Brian Fuentes    
Rafael Dolis    
Heath Bell    
Scott Downs    
Henry Rodriguez    
Carlos Marmol    
Javy Guerra    
Grant Balfour    
Brandon League    
Brian Fuentes second time    
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