Fantasy Football
November 1, 2012 posted by Chuck Anderson

Fantasy Football 2012: Week Nine Inside the Numbers

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Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

Based on Advanced NFL Stats’ numbers after Week Eight, Peyton Manning will only play two top twenty teams in defensive efficiency the rest of the season.  Denver’s offensive line is on quite a run as well, they have only surrendered two sacks in their last four games.


Opponents have only thrown 36 deep passes into Atlanta’s coverage, third fewest in the league.  Michael Vick had attempted 57 going into Sunday’s game and left with 58.  Limiting big plays like that makes it tough for opposing quarterbacks to have big fantasy days.


Wide receivers are often characterized as “boom or bust”, but that label fits Trent Richardson too.  In three weeks he landed in the top five of Football Outsiders’ grading (DYAR), in three other weeks he was in the bottom five.


Stevan Ridley was stuffed on five of his fifteen carries but gained 127 yards on the other ten.


Titus Young was targeted nine times and caught all of them.  He scored twice and was second in receiving DYAR on the week.  Those skills are why he was on so many preseason sleeper lists.


Torrey Smith has fourteen targets 30+ yards downfield.  The second place receiver has nine.


Two receivers have seen at least 25 catchable passes without dropping one yet:  Miles Austin and Desean Jackson.


Demaryius Thomas displays impressive running ability by averaging 15.2 yards per catch on screen passes.  For comparison, LeSean McCoy is averaging 3.0 yards.


Percy Harvin’s average depth of target is only 4.1 yards but he gets 8.4 yards per target based on his running skills.  He has forced 21 missed tackles.


Robert Griffin III had his first pedestrian fantasy day but was done in by seven drops.  Santana Moss muffed three on his own.


Snap watch:  Vick Ballard played 31 while Donald Brown played 30.  This could be an evenly split committee or Brown could reestablish dominance next week.  Watch this one closely.


Andre Brown scored from the one yard line but Ahmad Bradshaw was still active in the red zone with five carries for twenty yards.


Carson Palmer looked Denarius Moore’s way four times in the red zone and connected for a touchdown.


The top six defenses in terms of limiting red zone possessions are San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Houston, Atlanta, and the New York Giants.  If any are available they should produce decent fantasy numbers.



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