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May 3, 2013 posted by Nick Raducanu

Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 5/3

Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 5/3
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Just like last year, I’ll be combing over box scores and scouring local beat writers’ reports each morning to help ensure  you have all the information you need in order to make the right decisions for your fantasy baseball lineup. So make sure you check back at this very spot for Hot/Cold Streaks, Injury News, Closer Updates, Daily Stats, and more so that you can stay one step ahead of the rest of your league!

An as always, make sure you’re getting your dose of daily fantasy baseball by playing the FP911 Challenge!

5 Good Nights, 5 Bad Nights

It’s a fact of life that every baseball player goes through hot and cold streaks. It’s important not to let those streaks influence a player’s fantasy baseball value too much, but it is important to be aware of how a player is doing within a short period of time (a seven-day sorter is always a good tool to use). A player’s short-term numbers can be the difference between winning and losing in daily games, and it can also make a huge difference in year-long leagues. For instance, if you can keep finding the second basemen on hot streaks and dropping them for another streaking second basemen once they get cold, you can piece together a very useful middle infielder-by-committee for your roto team. So before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify who had a good night and who had a bad night on Thursday, May 2nd.

5 Good Nights

  • Carlos Gomez: 2-4, R, RBI, 2 steals
  • Dominic Brown: 3-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI
  • Nate McClouth: 2-5, R, HR, 2 RBI
  • Chris Tillman: 8.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks, W
  • Dan Haren: 8.0 IP, 4 H, ER, BB, 4 K’s, W

 

Honorable Mention: Tyler Flowers, Nolan Reimold, Ryan Dempster, Jake Westbrook, Joe Blanton, Kyle Kendrick, Travis Wood, Rick Porcello, Eric Stults, Hector Santiago

5 Bad Nights

  • Wily Peralta: 4.1 IP, 11 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 3 Ks
  • Dallas Keuchel: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 Ks
  • J.A. Happ: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 7 BB, 2 Ks
  • Dustin Pedroia: 0-5
  • Chris Carter: 0-5

 

Dishonorable Mention: Matt Dominguez, Marwin Gonzalez, Jose Altuve

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

  • Andrew Bailey is experiencing “biceps discomfort” and was held out of Thursday’s save situation against Toronto. Joel Hanrahan picked up the save for the Red Sox and is worth a pickup if he’s on your waiver-wire just in case Bailey ends up having to hit the DL.
  • Ryan Zimmerman (ankle) will be activated from the disabled list today and should be in the starting lineup as the Nationals take on the Pirates.
  • Mark Ellis is expected to be placed on the 15-day DL today with a quad injury.
  • Trevor Bauer was sent back to Triple-A Columbus after being called up for a spot start on Wednesday.
  • After throwing 42 pitchers for Double-A Tennesssee on Wednesday, there is a chance that Matt Garza will return to the Cubs within two weeks.

 

3 Up, 3 Down, and Throwing Darts

Starting and sitting the right pitchers on a day-to-day basis is often the lynchpin of winning any fantasy baseball league – roto, head-to-head, daily, and otherwise. In order to give you some help picking your pitchers for today, I’ve gone through all of the stats that I could (pitchers’ career numbers vs. certain hitters and lineups, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, etc) and have made nine recommendations. I’m not going to proclaim that I’ll get these 100% correct all season, but anyone that does should be sitting on an island that they own in the Pacific – not writing fantasy baseball articles. The goal here is to play the odds the entire season and slowly build your “win” percentage closer to 100% than to 50%.

Here are today’s recommendations with, 3 Up (three pitchers you shouldn’t think of sitting), 3 Down (three pitchers with some warning flags for today), and Throwing Darts (three pitchers that I’ll be taking a flier on):

3 Up

Clayton Kershaw at San Francisco Giants

Doug Fister at Houston Astros

Felix Hernandez at Toronto Blue Jays

3 Down

Shaun Marcum at Atlanta Braves

Barry Zito vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

A.J. Griffin at New York Yankees

Throwing Darts

Carlos Villanueva vs.  Cincinnati Reds

Jeremy Guthrie vs. Chicago White Sox

Ricky Romero vs. Seattle Mariners

Swings and Misses

A hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher don’t always tell the whole story, but it can be informative if used correctly. I’m of the opinion that some information is better than none, and while there are other pieces to the puzzle of setting your daily lineup (splits, weather, etc.), I think a hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher can be very indicative of future success or failure. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. As such, I’ve gone through today’s matchups and picked the best (and worst) matchups I could find. Anything less than 10-12 career at-bats is a relatively small sample-size (so take those with a grain of salt), but sometimes that’s all that is available.

Swings

  • Carlos Beltran is 23-for-42 (.548) with four home runs in his career against today’s starter, Kyle Lohse.
  • Matt Kemp is 24-for-55 (.436) with three home runs in his career against today’s starter, Barry Zito.
  • Matt Holliday is 6-for-12 (.500) with one home run in his career against today’s starter, Kyle Lohse.

 

Misses
  • Hunter Pence is 1-for-26 (.038) in his career against today’s starter, Clayton Kershaw.
  • Dustin Pedroia is 2-for-14 (.143) in his career against today’s starter, Derek Holland.
  • Adam Dunn is 2-for-19 (.105) in his career against today’s starter, Jeremy Guthrie.

 

If you have any questions, comments, complaints, or have a suggestion on a feature you’d like to see covered in these daily reports, please contact me @FantasyTrade411 or email me at FantasyTrade411@gmail.com and I’ll be happy to respond.

 

Nick Raducanu finished 2011 ranked in the top 20 on ESPN’s Fantasy site, and is the mystery man behind the TraderX persona at www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411.

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