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April 19, 2013 posted by Nick Raducanu

Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 4/19

Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 4/19
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Just like last year, I’ll be combing over box scores and scouring local beat writers’ reports each morning to help ensure  you have all the information you need in order to make the right decisions for your fantasy baseball lineup. So make sure you check back at this very spot for Hot/Cold Streaks, Injury News, Closer Updates, Daily Stats, and more so that you can stay one step ahead of the rest of your league!

An as always, make sure you’re getting your dose of daily fantasy baseball by playing the FP911 Challenge!

5 Good Nights, 5 Bad Nights

It’s a fact of life that every baseball player goes through hot and cold streaks. It’s important not to let those streaks influence a player’s fantasy baseball value too much, but it is important to be aware of how a player is doing within a short period of time (a seven-day sorter is always a good tool to use). A player’s short-term numbers can be the difference between winning and losing in daily games, and it can also make a huge difference in year-long leagues. For instance, if you can keep finding the second basemen on hot streaks and dropping them for another streaking second basemen once they get cold, you can piece together a very useful middle infielder-by-committee for your roto team. So before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify who had a good night and who had a bad night on Thursday, April 18th.

5 Good Nights

  • Matt Wieters: 2-5, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI
  • Rajai Davis: 1-4, R, RBI, 2 steals
  • Todd Frazier: 2-3, 3 R, HR, 2 RBI
  • Justin Verlander: 7.0 IP, 9 H, 2 ER, BB, 12 Ks
  • R.A. Dickey: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, BB, 7 K’s, W

 

Honorable Mention: Troy Tulowitzki, Dustin Pedroia, Eric Chavez, Wellington Castillo, Jay Bruce, James Loney, Jon Garland, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Jon Lester, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Sale, Phil Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Hisashi Iwakuma, Tony Cingrani

5 Bad Nights

  • Alexei Ogando: 2.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 2 Ks
  • Jose Fernandez: 4.0 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 Ks
  • Matt Cain: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 4 BB
  • Jason Heyward: 0-5
  • Starling Marte: 0-5

 

Dishonorable Mention: A.J. Pollock, David Price, Julio Teheran, Miguel Gonzalez

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

  • In case you missed it yesterday, Derek Jeter will be out until after the All-Star Break and is eminently droppable if you don’t have an extra DL spot.
  • David Ortiz (heel) has completed his rehab stint and will return to the Red Sox’ lineup as soon as they play (which is looking unlikely considering this morning’s events in Boston).
  • Cameron Maybin has been placed on the 15-day DL with a wrist injury. Chris Denorfia and Will Venable look to be the players who will benefit the most in Maybin’s absence.
  • After struggling to start the season, Jesus Montero will enter a catching platoon with Kelly Shoppach. Montero will still hold value over the course of the season, but this isn’t good short-term news for his owners.
  • Andrew Bailey picked up his second save for the Red Sox and manager John Farrell said that Joel Hanrahan will not automatically regain his job once healthy. Looks like Bailey may end up having long-term value if he can pitch well in Hanrahan’s absence.

 

3 Up, 3 Down, and Throwing Darts

Starting and sitting the right pitchers on a day-to-day basis is often the linchpin of winning any fantasy baseball league – roto, head-to-head, daily, and otherwise. In order to give you some help picking your pitchers for today, I’ve gone through all of the stats that I could (pitchers’ career numbers vs. certain hitters and lineups, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, etc) and have made nine recommendations. I’m not going to proclaim that I’ll get these 100% correct all season, but anyone that does should be sitting on an island that they own in the Pacific – not writing fantasy baseball articles. The goal here is to play the odds the entire season and slowly build your “win” percentage closer to 100% than to 50%.

Here are today’s recommendations with, 3 Up (three pitchers you shouldn’t think of sitting), 3 Down (three pitchers with some warning flags for today), and Throwing Darts (three pitchers that I’ll be taking a flier on):

3 Up

Yu Darvish vs. Seattle Mariners

Mat Latos vs. Miami Marlins

Madison Bumgarner vs. San Diego Padres

3 Down

Tommy Hanson vs. Detroit Tigers

Ian Kennedy at Colorado Rockies

Roy Halladay vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Throwing Darts

Marco Estrada vs. Chicago Cubs

Jhoulys Chacin vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Jason Hammel vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Swings and Misses

A hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher don’t always tell the whole story, but it can be informative if used correctly. I’m of the opinion that some information is better than none, and while there are other pieces to the puzzle of setting your daily lineup (splits, weather, etc.), I think a hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher can be very indicative of future success or failure. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. As such, I’ve gone through today’s matchups and picked the best (and worst) matchups I could find. Anything less than 10-12 career at-bats is a relatively small sample-size (so take those with a grain of salt), but sometimes that’s all that is available.

Swings

  • Small sample-size, but Josh Hamilton is 4-for-4 (1.000) in his career against today’s starter, Anibal Sanchez.
  • Carlos Beltran is 15-for-46 (.326) with three home runs in his career against today’s starter, Roy Halladay.
  • Ian Kinsler is 10-for-27 (.370) with four home runs and eight RBI in his career against today’s starter, Joe Saunders.

 

Misses
  • Josh Willingham is hitless in 15 career at-bats against today’s starter, Jake Peavy.
  • Jimmy Rollins is 1-for-14 (.071) against today’s starter, Jaime Garcia.
  • Vernon Wells is 1-for-10 (.100) in his career against today’s starter, Brandon Morrow.

 

If you have any questions, comments, complaints, or have a suggestion on a feature you’d like to see covered in these daily reports, please contact me @FantasyTrade411 or email me at FantasyTrade411@gmail.com and I’ll be happy to respond.

 

Nick Raducanu finished 2011 ranked in the top 20 on ESPN’s Fantasy site, and is the mystery man behind the TraderX persona at www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411.

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