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January 23, 2014 posted by Dan Strafford

2014 Fantasy Baseball The Strategery Department: Tiers for Fears

2014 Fantasy Baseball The Strategery Department: Tiers for Fears
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Tiers For Fears once sang, “Everybody wants to rule the world.” Well, here’s how you can rule your fantasy baseball draft.  As for world domination, ask again tomorrow.  Fine, it was Tears for Fears and current theories on world domination are under review, but here is another way to win your draft.    

Now that you have your own tiers and rankings completed or at least you understand their importance, lets move on to another preparation tool that should help you stay calm, cool, and collected come draft day.  The tiers that were discussed last week are to provide a valuation of players at each position, but how do you decide the players you are targeting are the right value for your pick in the draft?  Here’s a simple approach that can help you stay within a draft plan and avoid reaching on draft day.

Separate out your rankings into draft rounds.  This obviously is applicable to serpentine draft types. (Don’t worry. We’ll focus on auction draft practices next week).  It is a fairly simple process to bunch your rankings into groups of ten, twelve, or however many teams are in your league.  While it is certainly true that you are not specifically mock drafting here, you are creating a way to quickly see where the draft could or should go in terms of value.

Here is the tricky part though;  During any draft, you can quickly come to a very bad conclusion.  You can see that your rankings are far askew from that of your fellow owners and seek to quickly abandon all the work you’ve done. Fear not, fantasy GM! This is a time to double down on your preparation and diligence.  What your time and dedication will reward you with is a round by round “where’s the value?” metric.

After round one, you can quickly take a look at who you had going in the first 14 picks, who is still on the board and what positional scarcity you are dealing with there.  Were there any surprises? Do you see any player in your rankings still available? If you can be patient and execute on a best player available strategy in the early rounds of your draft, this ranking system will allow you an easy way to spot falling value.

On the flip side of this process, it also allows you to easily sort players you think are on the rise or valued to the low side incorrectly by the rest of your league.  Below is a list of the top 42 players in fantasy baseball this year according to the FantasyPros.com’s expert consensus rankings.  For this example, we’ll take these to be your own, independently authored rankings specific to your league.  Your first round is complete and everything went according to your rankings, but through the second round Freddie Freeman remains on the board.  With this easy breakdown of your rankings, his name will jump out at you as a great value to be had in round number three.           

Finally, this system allows you to have a secondary tier structure to work off of at all times.  If you are focused in the third round on adding a third baseman and your tier has Adrian Beltre, David Wright, and Evan Longoria, you know who you are focusing on. What if all three players are gone and you are on the clock?  Your next tier at third base is a major step down.  In this instance, you can easily switch over to the round by round tier structure to find the best available player of value.  This way you aren’t left reaching at a position and don’t have to scramble for a name.

Unto itself, this ranking is simply a modification of your own rankings. If used correctly, it is a way to keep all of your information front and center on draft day while keeping away any sudden lapses in judgment that can absolutely sink a draft strategy.

 

 

ECR Player Name  Team  Position  Ave Rank  Std Dev

1

Mike Trout LAA LF,CF

1.2

0.4

2

Miguel Cabrera DET 3B

1.8

0.4

3

Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1B

3.4

0.6

4

Andrew McCutchen PIT CF

4.1

0.8

5

Carlos Gonzalez COL LF

7.3

2.2

6

Robinson Cano SEA 2B

8

3.6

7

Clayton Kershaw LAD SP

8.5

5.3

8

Adam Jones BAL CF

9.7

3.9

9

Bryce Harper WSH LF,CF,RF

13

6.8

10

Ryan Braun MIL LF

13.3

6.8

11

Prince Fielder TEX 1B

13.4

2.6

12

Adrian Beltre TEX 3B,DH

13.6

3.9

13

Joey Votto CIN 1B

13.8

3.2

14

Troy Tulowitzki COL SS

17

6

15

Yu Darvish TEX SP

18

3.8

16

David Wright NYM 3B

19

5.5

17

Carlos Gomez MIL CF

20.2

3.8

18

Jacoby Ellsbury NYY CF

21.5

13.4

19

Freddie Freeman ATL 1B

22.8

4.5

20

Felix Hernandez SEA SP

26

4.3

21

Adam Wainwright STL SP

26.3

5.8

22

Giancarlo Stanton MIA RF

27.3

12.5

23

Cliff Lee PHI SP

27.4

4.8

24

Stephen Strasburg WSH SP

27.5

4.9

25

Hanley Ramirez LAD 3B,SS

27.6

55.2

26

Max Scherzer DET SP

28.5

6.8

27

Jason Kipnis CLE 2B

29.3

6.8

28

Jose Fernandez MIA SP

31.8

8.3

29

Evan Longoria TB 3B,DH

32.8

11.9

30

Justin Upton ATL LF,RF

33.7

3.8

31

Dustin Pedroia BOS 2B

35.5

11.9

32

Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1B,3B,DH

35.8

53.3

33

Jay Bruce CIN RF

35.8

13.2

34

Yasiel Puig LAD RF,LF,CF

36

12.6

35

Madison Bumgarner SF SP

37.3

7.8

36

Jose Bautista TOR RF

37.8

22.4

37

Chris Sale CWS SP

38.7

3.9

38

Ian Desmond WSH SS

39.1

8.4

39

Jose Reyes TOR SS

40.2

10.9

40

David Price TB SP

42.4

5.7

41

Shin-Soo Choo TEX CF,RF

43.5

11.9

42

Cole Hamels PHI SP

45.2

6.3

 

 

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