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February 16, 2012 posted by Paul Greco

Fantasy Baseball 2012 – Starting Pitcher Scouting Report, Part 5 of 5

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Josh Tomlin, Cleveland Indians Starting Pitcher

Efficiency in your rotation is how you win leagues. Cheap, replaceable, effective starting pitchers mean more picks and/or budget for bats and closers. In order to be successful most of your rotation needs to be composed of pitchers that can be acquired at a value. Here are some to target on draft day – if the price is right.

1. Josh Tomlin, CLE -Tomlin’s K and GB rates are low, but a 4 to 1 K/BB rate is worth a look. Could be a WHIP darling and cheap source of wins. You could do worse than an entire staff of Josh Tomlins.
2. Jason Vargas, SEA – Although last season’s splits don’t support it, you like him at home. Trust me.
3. Edwin Jackson, STL – Jackson is poison for your WHIP but if you load up on finesse pitchers you may need someone that’s capable of rearing back and racking up K’s. He’s a valuable piece for the right roster, but don’t overpay.
4. Jair Jurrjens, ATL – 25 starts might be a stretch, as he was incredibly lucky last year, and his GB% and K/BB rate are just barely serviceable. Having said all of that, Jurrjens has a history of out-pitching his sabermetrics and other owners may be ready to give up. A great buy if he goes into freefall.
5. Vance Worley, PHL – 8+ K/9 and 2.6 K/BB rate are the positives. His GB% has something to be desired and FIP and xFIP say he may have been a tad lucky in 2011 but the skill set is stable enough and will project well across 200 innings.
6. Wade Davis, TB – Skills were flat from 2010 to 2011 and there is a lot not to like about the AL East. Nothing fancy with the stats here – just trust that the Rays know what they’re doing with their pitching and buy the pedigree if he comes at a discount.
7. Carlos Zambrano, CHC – It looks like Big Z may be nearing the end of the line which will keep his price to a minimum. Dude knows how to pitch as he’s always mixed four pitches. He through a cutter 20% of the time last season and one could see a resurgence if he masters that pitch. An end game speculative pick, but not a complete guess.
8. Jeremy Guthrie, BAL – He looks good for 200 innings and if he can get his control in line with his better seasons could push 2.5 K/BB. The move to Colorado will not be pleasant.

 

Paul finished the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football season as the #1 Weekly Rankings & Projections winner of the 411Fantasy Expert Challenge. He also finished 2nd in the FantasyPros.com Expert Draft Accuracy Challenge in 2011. Top 10 Finisher in the FSWA Fantasy Football Draft Projections. Paul is also apart of baseballs elite as a member of Tout Wars. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulGreco
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