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June 2, 2014 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results June 2, 2014

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results June 2, 2014
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Here are this week’s results. As you will see with the comment on Mark Melancon, CIA took its first loss of the year. That loss stings since it was right all along until Melancon just happened to sandwich a 9/10 SV/SVO right before his demotion. 

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Zach Britton Lose His skill set remains well below CIA minimums, despite superficial success. 
Joe Smith Auto Lose Has blown his last two opportunities, is now only 5/9 in SV/SVO and should be done except on days where Frieri needs rest.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Hold He is a new man in May, converting all six of his chances. His record is subject to how many FB go out of the park, and he cannot really control that, so….
Chad Qualls Hold With each outing he appears to solidify his role. 
Bryan Shaw Hold He has not had an SVO lately so we are including him out of caution. Allen appears to have the leg up anyway.
Cody Allen Hold He has more K’s but worse control than Shaw. If you could put them together you would have an elite reliever. 
Fernando Rodney Auto Hold One of the themes CIA has proven true is that skills do not matter as much as having the role and converting saves. 
Joakim Soria Auto Hold Is now 10/11 in SV/SVO.
Grant Balfour Auto Lose He has not let up a run in his last two outings, which almost seems like a sustained run of success this year. I still think he is hurt and he is due for a clunker.
Koji Uehara Auto Hold Proving again that his skill set is among the best of any pitcher in baseball, reliever or not.
Greg Holland Auto Hold The AL’s best.
Joe Nathan Auto Lose Another week, another four ER and another BS. How much longer can this go on?
Glen Perkins Auto Hold He and Uehara are tied for the second best K/BB at 11.00. They are a FAR cry from the leader though.
Ronald Belisario Auto Lose We are officially sick of him here. He has no business as a closer. I doubt he gets the next opportunity, so don’t count out Scott Downs (Webb isn’t my choice).
Matt Lindstrom Auto Lose Still on the DL but who cares?
David Robertson Auto Lose His ugly outing on Sunday was enough by itself to alter his status. Ouch.
Casey Janssen Auto Hold More K’s would be nice, but we will chalk that up to “getting into shape” than “he isn’t that good anymore.”
Sean Doolittle Hold A 35.00 K/BB is ridiculous. He doesn’t walk anyone, but we saw how that worked for Edward Mujica last year. In his defense Doolittle is a MUCH better K pitcher so he looks rock solid.
National League
Craig Kimbrel Auto Hold His ahead of Chapman by 0.38 K/9 in a close horserace.
Francisco Rodriguez Auto Lose This is likely a temporary status change as K-Rod yields to overwork. He got a well-deserved few days off.
Trevor Rosenthal Hold Rosenthal righted his ship in a huge way and now is above all CIA minimums; in his last six outings he has 0 BB and 8 K.
Hector Rondon Hold Has been fine but nowhere near the better closers. At the price you paid for him that works.
Addison Reed Auto Hold Like Rosenthal he has righted his ship without going off the deep end, and continues to be a reliable save converter.
Kenley Jansen Auto Hold Back to elite status.
Sergio Romo Auto Lose Like K-rod this is probably a temporary status change, as Romo had a bad week, but a low K rate at least raises an eyebrow.
Steve Cishek Auto Hold Had a hiccup in a non-save situation but at 11/12 in SV/SVO who cares? His 4 wins is an added bonus.
Jennry Mejia Auto Hold He looks very good so far, with a 5/5 SV/SVO so even if Collins goes to a committee he will be part of it.
Rafael Soriano Auto Hold Like Papelbon it seems that the skills do not matter. 
Huston Street Auto Hold A perfect 17/17 in SV/SVO
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Hold His skill decline has not kept him from converting his chances, and that is what matters most. At least he is not Latroy Hawkins.
Jason Grilli Auto Hold Gets a fresh start for CIA purposes, and is 3/3 since getting the job back.
Mark Melancon Auto Hold His last save ended up changing his status from “lose” to “auto hold” and CIA takes a miss on a situation it had pegged correctly the whole way up until that last save. Damn.
Latroy Hawkins Auto Hold He will get “auto lose” status if he blows a save soon, but the way he is going we may have a Dan Kolb-like season.
Aroldis Chapman Auto Hold And you were worried?
HITS MISSES
Jose Veras  Mark Melancon
JJ Hoover
Jim Johnson
Jose Valverde
Sean Doolittle
Shawn Kelley
Ernesto Frieri
Sergio Santos
Jonathan Broxton
Josh Fields
Sean Doolittle
John Axford
Luke Gregerson
Brett Cecil
Tommy Hunter
Kyle Farnsworth

 

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