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September 18, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for September 18

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

No hits or misses this week in a relatively quiet week for CIA. We still have two status changes. At this stage the future doesn’t matter, and the sheet is all about tallying the final record. 

The record still remains 24-6. A summary of the biggest surprises and failures among closers will be posted later today in my USAToday.com column. Next week we will sum up the CIA experiment, will plan for the next step, and will discuss how and why this experiment appears to be a success.

My belief is that fantasy baseball has gone as far as it can go in terms of accurate projections and sophisticated sabermetrics. The next frontier is to make better use of what the industry has already achieved, and CIA is a first step in that endeavor.

Pitcher CIA result Comments  
Jim Johnson Hold
Johnson has been the stalwart of the resurgent Orioles pen, and his 43/46 SV/SVO is no joke.
Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Andrew Bailey Hold Status change again as he is still a small sample. But he is well above minimums right now. Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers.
Addison Reed Hold With every week he gets closer to “lose” status and is at his low point right now. Note: Automatic hold status is based on season AND last ten
Chris Perez Hold Someone tell him he should keep his mouth shut. Please?  
Jose Valverde Lose Valverde is now guaranteed a “lose” status for the year, and CIA is virtually guaranteed to miss on him, which is poetic justice in a way.  
Greg Holland Hold His 2.7 K/BB is barely acceptable.  
Ernesto Frieri Hold Frieri is at the head of the third-tier closers, with a very solid 142 BPV.  
Glen Perkins Hold Perkins is right behind Frieri in tier three with a 131 BPV.  
Kevin Jepsen Hold I will spare you the Carly Rae jokes and merely point out that I am grudgingly giving Mike Scioscia credit for doing a great job with the pen this year. Whether he has a share is iffy, but we include him as usual.  
Rafael Soriano Hold We cannot rightly say “Mariano who?” But the Yanks have not missed a beat without Mariano.  
Grant Balfour Hold Skills still are well below the stat minimums, but Balfour gets automatic “hold” status from his SV/SVO of 19/21.  
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold The one-time bartender is in the throes of a freefall, with a -71 BPV in the last month. He will be interesting to watch next year.  
Fernando Rodney Hold His 0.66 ERA has to be a typo or is confused with his usual K/BB rate.  
Joe Nathan Hold Some recent hiccups barely dampen a tremendous season for Nathan. And he has surged in the last month with a 258 BPV.  
Casey Janssen Hold Proof that LIMA still has strong vitality, and his K/BB ratio of 6.8 induces drools, or at least it should.  
J.J. Putz Hold He has been steady all year, and had at least a 119 BPV in every month.  
Craig Kimbrel Hold Still the best, now by a wide margin.  
Carlos Marmol Hold 20 consecutive conversions. Simply unbelievable.  
Aroldis Chapman Hold Here’s hoping he is not the next Kerry Wood or Mark Prior if the Reds go all the way to the Series.  
Jonathon Broxton Lose We feel dirty including him, as he has no business being discussed here, but for some late-season rest for Chapman.   
Rafael Betancourt Hold After a K rate stumble in August, Betancourt has rebounded and has been very steady all year.  
Kenley Jansen Hold Should be back as of this writing though not as the sole closer at first.  
Ronald Belisario Lose Will be a dirty “hit’ for CIA if Jansen fully reclaims the role, which is no guarantee.  
Brandon League Lose Mattingly says Jansen will not be a full-time closer upon his return, and League is still in the mix.  
Steve Cishek Hold He is 13/14 since getting the job back (one he shouldn’t have lost in the first place) and should be in clover the rest of the way  
Wilton Lopez Hold Rapidly becoming my favorite reliever, simply because he is so good and still unknown. He is a top ten closer at a bargain price. The NL version of Casey Janssen.  
Frank Francisco Hold A 5.53 ERA makes me queasy, but he is 18 for his last 20 and gets another “hold.”  
John Axford Hold Still getting the job done despite his manager’s best efforts to waste a good asset.  
Jon Papelbon Hold He is as safe as closers get, and well worth a big fantasy price compared to his compatriots.  
Joel Hanrahan Hold We will take him over Papelbon, but not by much. Another low-risk option.  
Luke Gregerson Hold Huston Street is on rehab again, and may oust Gregerson, but not because Gregerson has earned a demotion.  
Sergio Romo Hold Romo is right there, skills-wise, with the best closers in the non Chapman/Kimbrel club.  
Javier Lopez Lose 6-6 in conversions so far, and CIA is hoping he gets his next three conversions to obtain automatic “hold” status, since his skills are slightly abhorrent.  
Jason Motte Hold Tony LaRussa should be in his own doghouse given his disgraceful misuse of a tremendous talent.  
Tyler Clippard Hold Give Davey Johnson credit for throttling down the abuse of Clippard in past seasons and coaxing an excellent season out of him. But Clipp is still a bottom level closer.  
       
       
Hits Misses    
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall    
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek    
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer    
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell    
Rafael Dolis Jared Burton    
Heath Bell Jim Henderson    
Henry Rodriguez      
Carlos Marmol      
Javy Guerra      
Grant Balfour      
Brandon League      
Brian Fuentes second time      
Heath Bell second time      
John Axford      
Brett Myers      
Francisco Cordero (HOU)      
Francisco Rodriguez       
Jonathon Broxton      
Ryan Cook      
Santiago Casilla      
Alfredo Aceves      
Scott Downs       
Jeremy Affeldt      
Dale Thayer (second shot)      

 

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