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September 24, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For Sept. 24

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

This week is the final week of predictions. Next week, after the end of the season, we will sum up the record.

It must be kept in mind that the date when we determine is a “hit” or “miss” occurred is not the date of this spreadsheet, as CIA is updated daily. If an announcement is made on a pitcher getting or losing the job, we use that date, and if no announcement is made we use the date of his last non-save outing. This matters for guys like Ronald Belisario, for example.

We still have two status changes: Steve Cishek and Mr. Small Sample Andrew Bailey. We also add a “hit” in the form of Jonathon Broxton. Sadly, Luke Gregerson is likely to earn a most undeserved “miss.”

Pitcher CIA result Comments  
Jim Johnson Hold 47/50 in saves has to be at the upper range of statistically expected outcomes. Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Andrew Bailey Lose Another week, another status change. Such is the fate of small samples. Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers.
Addison Reed Hold Bottom-tier skills may hold him back next year if he does not improve. Note: Automatic hold status is based on season AND last ten
Chris Perez Hold Still no fears, other than a potential off-season deal.  
Jose Valverde Lose Exhibit A for “why the Tigers will miss the postseason.” His 31 BPV is laughable.  
Greg Holland Hold Only question left is whether he keeps the job when Soria returns next season.  
Ernesto Frieri Hold Had a bad week, but remains solidly in second tier.  
Glen Perkins Hold No reasons for concern; he has blossomed in the role.   
Kevin Jepsen Hold Still in the mix, as he had a save in the last week.  
Rafael Soriano Hold We have been saying all year that his HR/FB was in for a big regression. Started Sept at 2%, is now at 7% for the year. Will end the year with the job, but is a bottom-tier option.  
Grant Balfour Hold A perfect 13/13 since reclaiming the job.  
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold By any yardstick it has been a tremendous season for Wilhelmsen, and another data point in the idea that you can always find a closer.  
Fernando Rodney Hold Still very much in the hunt for the I Beat Eckersley Award with an 0.64 ERA.  
Joe Nathan Hold Someday he may make a very interesting Hall of Fame debate. For now he is among the very best and most reliable.  
Casey Janssen Hold A 6.9 K/BB and 150+ BPV make him an easy top ten closer.  
J.J. Putz Hold 163 BPV and over 10K/9 make him an elite option, but for his injury history.  
Craig Kimbrel Hold Still the best and a legit Cy Young contender. The argument against him is essentially innings, which is not his fault for manager usage. As far as his role is concerned he is more above replacement than the best NL starter.  
Carlos Marmol Hold Finally blew one, but is 18/19 since his re-ascension. Only a complete collapse will prevent him form holding his current “hold” but that is never impossible in his case.  
Aroldis Chapman Hold Returns to oust Broxton.  
Jonathon Broxton Lose Easiest “hit” for CIA. Dirty.  
Rafael Betancourt Hold Will be interested to see if his skills erosion continues next year.  
Kenley Jansen Hold He is back but still has yet to reclaim the full job.  
Ronald Belisario Lose Status is very much in question, as Mattingly prefers League. With zero saves this month, he has probably lost the job, but will give him a week.  
Brandon League Lose Whether CIA gets him right will come down to the wire, which seems silly, but have to take the good with the bad when dealing with a “no-judgment” evaluation algorithm.  
Steve Cishek Lose Been walking a fine line and had a terrible last 30 days.  
Wilton Lopez Hold 7.6 K/BB and I love the guy.  
Frank Francisco Hold SV/SVO is his saving grace. CIA is not about what is “best” but what managers will do, so no matter  what you think of SV as a stat, it matters a great deal in real life. Hell, look at Valverde.  
John Axford Hold Has very little chance of losing the job, and deserves a ton of credit for turning it around without losing his mental focus.  
Jon Papelbon Hold Rock solid second tier guy.  
Joel Hanrahan Hold My personal favorite, aside from maybe Wilton Lopez.  
Luke Gregerson Hold May stave off execution by gentle handling of Street, but remains to be seen. Will likely end up as a “miss.”  
Huston Street Hold Returned to garner a SV in his first outing.  
Sergio Romo Hold Another elite closer that deserves better than a time share with Javier Lopez. Close to top five in the skill set department.  
Javier Lopez Lose Getting closer to “hold” status but will likely fall short.  
Jason Motte Hold No concerns here.  
Tyler Clippard Hold Still among the bottom-tier of closers but solid.  
       
       
Hits Misses    
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall    
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek    
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer    
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell    
Rafael Dolis Jared Burton    
Heath Bell Jim Henderson    
Henry Rodriguez      
Carlos Marmol      
Javy Guerra      
Grant Balfour      
Brandon League      
Brian Fuentes second time      
Heath Bell second time      
John Axford      
Brett Myers      
Francisco Cordero (HOU)      
Francisco Rodriguez       
Jonathon Broxton      
Ryan Cook      
Santiago Casilla      
Alfredo Aceves      
Scott Downs       
Jeremy Affeldt      
Dale Thayer (second shot)      
Jonathon Broxton (Reds)      
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