May 27, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 27

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for May 27
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Here are this week’s results. The biggest item worth mentioning is Jim Johnson’s status change; CIA now predicts he will lose the job. It has been a sharp fall, and we have to wonder is he is hiding an injury.

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Auto Lose After blowing four of his past five he goes from one of the best to vulnerable; a huge change in two weeks.
Andrew Bailey Hold Finally returns so keep your fingers crossed that it is for good.
Addison Reed Auto Hold And without fanfare, Reed has become a rock solid, safe, and even strong option.
Chris Perez Lose Injured, to no one’s surprise. At the time he went on the DL he dropped to “lose” status.
Vinnie Pestano Lose The Free Vinny Pestano movement from two years ago may finally get its shot. Its bad timing because he is walking the whole park.
Joe Smith Hold He may have a legitimate chance at holding the job for as long as needed; the skill set is there and he gets a ton of GB.
Jose Valverde Lose Last week was no different than every other. 
Jose Veras Lose Still below CIA minimums, his BB rate is over 4.00, and he has now blown three saves. He is vulnerable to anyone with a pulse. If only the Astros had someone with a pulse.
Greg Holland Hold His K/BB rate is up to 3.25 so he has put his house back in order for now.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Hold His skill set is still among the worst in the closer ranks, but his 10/11 SV/SVO gets him an “auto hold.”
Glen Perkins Auto Hold Finally blew a save, but is among the best-skilled closers.
Mariano Rivera Auto Hold His K rate is way down, but he walks no one and there is no worry at all right now.
Grant Balfour Auto Hold Still perfect, but still has skills below CIA minimums. His is a good example of why we give automatic statuses based on success in converting.
Tom Wilhelmsen Auto Hold Finally blew a save, and still gets the “auto hold” status, but his skill set is lagging below CIA minimums.
Fernando Rodney Lose Another week, another blown save and another “lose” status.
Joe Nathan Auto Hold Now 16/17 in SV/SVO but skills still slightly on the wane.
Casey Janssen Auto Hold 10/10 but finally walked a batter, so his shot at perfection is gone. His 15.00 K/BB is not too shabby.
National League    
Heath Bell Hold Still a few saves short of automatic hold status, but this is vintage Bell. 
Craig Kimbrel Hold The “S” on his shirt has gotten a little bit smaller, but he is still super. 
Kevin Gregg Auto Hold Still perfect, but skills are starting to drop after a hot start, and his K/BB is down to 2.6
Aroldis Chapman Hold He looks to be back on track.
Rafael Betancourt Auto Hold He finally blew a save, and it will not be a shock if a few more come in short order; he is struggling.
Brandon League Lose Still has a laughable K rate, and only a few recent missteps by Jansen probably saved him. Four straight good outings make the leash a bit longer.
Chad Qualls Lose Was mentioned as a possible save source so is included, but has zero opportunities. Is below CIA minimums.
Mike Dunn Auto Hold Is 1/1 so gets the auto hold by default. He walks too many and is below the minimums.
Jim Henderson Auto Hold Is hurt so stay tuned next week for news and replacements.
Bobby Parnell Hold Bumped his K rate (and K/BB rate) up a bit, which helps. He is probably the safest bet among lower-tier closers.
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Hold Taking a page out of the Mariano Rivera book this year; both has weak-ish K rates offset by walking nobody.
Jason Grilli Auto Hold Bad: His K rate dipped. Good: To 13.50. And is still perfect.
Huston Street Automatic Hold Another of the “poor skills great SV/SVO” group.
Sergio Romo Auto Hold This is not a status change; I incorrectly had him as a mere “hold” last week.
Edward Mujica Auto Hold Has gotten even better since last week, as his K/BB is now up to 19.00
Rafael Soriano Lose Not a good week; he had two blown saves, and his K rate has plummeted. His K/BB is still strong so this is a tepid “lose” at best.
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??  
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa  
Mitchell Boggs    
Shawn Camp    
Joaquin Benoit    
Phil Coke??    
Bruce Rondon??    
Joel Hanrahan    
Koji Uehara    
Steve Cishek    




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