March 11, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For March 11

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Addison Reed, RP, Chicago White Sox

Here is the first updated set of the 2012 FSWA Award-Winning Closer Identifier Algorithm results for 2013 with commentary. The initial article will be up at tomorrow. 

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold Weak K rate but 94% SV/SVO
Joel Hanrahan Hold 1.9 K/BB but BARELY holds on with 90% SV/SVO
Addison Reed Hold Not close to top tier
Chris Perez Hold One of the big surprises last year but is hurt as of this writing and will be out a few weeks
Vinnie Pestano Hold Dealing with injury replacements is always difficult, but Pestano may run with the job; he is good enough to do so.
Joaquin Benoit Hold May have nominal competition, but is easily the best bet in the pen over Rondon.
Bruce Rondon Lose Wouldn’t qualify for the AAA version of CIA
Phil Coke Hold Most likely won’t start with a share of the job.
Al Albuquerque Lose We have seen this story before many times: fireballer with no control gets the job and blows it. His extreme GB% helps.
Wesley Wright Hold He is a LOOGY but no one else in the Houston pen merits a second glance by CIA. 
Greg Holland Hold BB issues need to improve. Third Tier closer for now.
Kelvin Herrera Hold Might be better than Holland right now, and is a solid backup plan.
Ryan Madson Hold Based on 2011 season stats.
Ernesto Frieri Hold Despite hold rating, there are negatives and any K erosion will make him a “lose” status.
Glen Perkins Hold Despite being a lefty, he is top-five worthy, and under the radar. 
Jared Burton Hold Like Kelvin Herrera, he is a great backup plan.
Mariano Rivera Hold Based on 9 appearances in 2012.
Ryan Cook Hold BPV says he is below the better guys but above the third-tier guys.
Grant Balfour Lose BPV of 79 barely misses “hold” status. 2.6 K/BB marginal.
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold Rebounded nicely and looks solid.
Fernando Rodney Hold 48/50 SV/SVO
Joe Nathan Hold A top five option, and no negatives.
Casey Janssen Hold The most underrated closer? He is right there after Kimbrel. The only concern is his injury.
Sergio Santos Lose he gets a “lose” status based on his six-game sample, but if we look at 2011 he would get a “hold.” He is coming off an injury so who knows what we will get.
National League    
JJ Putz Hold Near the top of the heap.
Craig Kimbrel Hold Highest BPV over Chapman
Carlos Marmol Hold Skills are well below CIA minimums, but he makes it on SV/SVO in last ten (90%)
Kyuji Fujikawa Lose Based PURELY on projected K/BB and BB rate. We include him for completeness but does not technically qualify yet.
Jonathon Broxton Hold He has the least rope of any closer based on CIA minimums. He only barely merits “hold” status.
Sean Marshall Hold As it looks right now, he is a much better bet than Broxton, but for the manager.
Rafael Betancourt Hold Is on a big K/9 decline that, if it continues, will earn a “lose” status.
Brandon League Lose Well below all CIA minimums. 
Kenley Jansen Hold His BaseballHQ BPV says he is a top five closer right now.
Steve Cishek Hold Gets a “hold” based on his last ten, but the skill set is weak and the leash is short.
Jose Ceda Lose If he gets a share of the job his BB rate says he will lose it. The situation may be in flux.
Ryan Webb Lose The Marlins have to hope that Cishek keeps his “hold” rating or they are in trouble.
John Axford Hold Like Cishek, his success in save conversion merits a “hold” status, but the skills set is still a work in progress.
Jim Henderson Hold He easily bests CIA minimums.
Frank Francisco Hold He had a fairly decent run of converted saves that merits a “hold.” For now.
Bobby Parnell Hold He may be the new Ryan Madson over the next few years, getting no shot for purely subjective reasons.
Jonathan Papelbon Hold No concerns so far despite some Spring struggles.
Jason Grilli Hold 2012’s small sample is the only one that suggests he will hold the job. And he is 36. make of that what you will.
Mark Melancon Hold Was much better than subjective analysis will give him credit for. Has a good shot to lead the Pirates’ pen.
Huston Street Hold We all know the drill. If he is healthy he is a top closer.
Sergio Romo Hold Easily a top ten, safe pick.
Jason Motte Hold A few too many blown saves for aesthetic purposes, but is fairly safe.
Rafael Soriano Hold Held a miniscule HR/FB until September, which buoyed him a bit. He is a clear “hold” but not safe.




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