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June 3, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For June 3

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For June 3
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Here are this week’s results. We had a lot of closers hitting the DL, which is one of CIA’s weak points. How do you handle it when two pitchers both have “hold” or “automatic hold” status? The goal is to improve predictive accuracy without using any clinical analysis.  There are two options; the first is to give the replacement closer an automatic “lose” status.  But that makes no sense since there are replacements who will hold the job when the incumbent comes back.

The better solution, but one that I am not ready to adopt quite yet, is to focus solely on the incumbent, but ignore the replacement. If the incumbent has a “hold” status then we assume he will hold it regardless of how good the incumbent is. This is usually what happens when the closer is out for a short time.  But if the incumbent has a “lose” status then it is up for grabs. This seems somewhat unsatisfying since it ignores the replacement unless the incumbent has a “lose” status.

Anyway, here are the latest status changes:

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold After three straight saves in a week he is back to being safe
Andrew Bailey Hold Skills have never really been an issue, and they still are not, with a 14.09 K/9 in the early going (for him).
Addison Reed Auto Hold K/9 is above 10 and he is 17/18 in SV/SVO.
Chris Perez Lose Unsurprisingly has shoulder issues, and they may be worse than initially thought since they have lingered since the spring.
Vinnie Pestano Lose Skill set has fallen off the deep end since last year, but it is all in BB erosion and a short sample, so may be nothing to worry about
Joe Smith Hold Appears to be second in line but we will include him for one more week in an abundance of caution.
Jose Valverde Lose His best asset is the pig-headedness of his manager.
Jose Veras Hold Veras has straightened out his season nicely after a rough start.
Greg Holland Hold 3.38 K/BB rate and 13.50 K/9. Not far from elite territory.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Hold Another week another “auto hold” despite bad skills, which are admittedly on the upswing. 
Glen Perkins Hold Drops his “automatic” hold status but there is no reason for concern.
Mariano Rivera Auto Hold We may make a Rivera Exception to CIA
Grant Balfour Auto Hold A perfect 13/13 in SV/SVO but BB/9 of 4.07 and K/BB below 2.5 may become an issue
Tom Wilhelmsen Lose He blew three opportunities this week, walking five batters with zero K’s, and now his skill set is among the worst, with a 1.55 K/BB and 6.29 K/9. He is in trouble. This is what happens with closers who are below CIA minimums.
Fernando Rodney Lose BB rate is up to 7.23. He avoids an automatic lose status by a hair.
Joe Nathan Auto Hold Nathan is as reliable as any closer, and is now 17/18 in SV/SVO
Casey Janssen Auto Hold The CIA favorite is trying to challenge Edward Mujica for best K/BB ratio, with a 19.00 mark.
National League    
Heath Bell Hold His startling resurgence continues and is 8 for last 9 in SV/SV0, close to automatic hold status.
Craig Kimbrel Hold Remember that one week where he blew two saves? Yeah, me neither. His LOB% is 96% right now.
Kevin Gregg Auto Hold No BS yet, but K/BB rate is down to 2.50 after a hot start. 
Aroldis Chapman Hold He had a good week and has gotten through his rough patch.
Rafael Betancourt Auto Hold Hits the DL 
Rex Brothers Auto Lose He is 1/2 in SV/SVO and skills have taken a dive since last year.
Brandon League Lose His K rate is still below 5.00.
Chad Qualls Lose No opportunities yet, but team has only had once since Cishek’s demotion.
Mike Dunn Auto Hold Still only one opportunity. The situation is still murky in Miami.
Jim Henderson Auto Hold Hits the DL at a bad time, and our hope is that he does not get Pipped by K-rod.
Francisco Rodriguez Auto Hold Take out 2012 and his skill set is clearly good enough to be a closer, so do not expect him to spit the bit. And he is 3/3.
Bobby Parnell Hold He is in no danger at this point.
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Hold He is now above all CIA minimums and is still perfect in SV/SVO. It was a good week.
Jason Grilli Auto Hold Grilli is trying to challenge for the greatest relief season ever.
Huston Street Automatic Hold Wow, he is hurt.
Luke Gregerson Automatic Hold Gets an “auto hold” based on one opportunity. His K prowess is no longer what it was and is below the CIA cutoff, but offsets it with good control. 
Sergio Romo Auto Hold His K/BB is 8.33
Edward Mujica Auto Hold The Mujica K/BB Watch is now up to 22.0 and he is fourth in saves.
Rafael Soriano Lose Soriano keeps his “lose” status but after two blown saves last week he has converted his last three in perfect fashion.
     
HITS MISSES  
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??  
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa  
Mitchell Boggs    
Shawn Camp    
Joaquin Benoit    
Phil Coke??    
Bruce Rondon??    
Joel Hanrahan    
Koji Uehara    
Steve Cishek    
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