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June 25, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for June 24

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for June 24
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Here are this week’s results. The biggest news to me is the fall of Jonathan Papelbon. Other notes:

-The situation in Milwaukee is still in flux and we rescinded the “miss” on Jim Henderson since he has more SVO than K-Rod since his alleged demotion.

-Brandon League has only one opportunity, in the 11th inning, since he was demoted and Kenley Jansen has all the rest, so we consider that to be the demotion of League.

-The current “official” tally is 16-1, and if we include questionable decisions (Kelvin Herrera, Bruce Rondon etc) it is 18-2. CIA is clearly building on last year’s success.

-For more analysis and the current version of the Algorithm, check out USAToday.com later in the day.

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold His K rate just dipped below 7.00.
Andrew Bailey Auto Lose A good lesson in why CIA is smarter than me. It responded and gave him this status very quickly, where I would not have.
Koji Uehara Hold Allegedly the closer, but we work with what managers do not what they say. Look how they handled Tazawa when Bailey was out.
Addison Reed Auto Hold Not a care in the world right now as he rolls along, building on last year’s successes.
Chris Perez Lose Reportedly will be back soon, but he has been pushed back a few times
Vinnie Pestano Lose It hasn’t gotten much better, so his only chance is for Perez to be out longer than anticipated.
Joaquin Benoit Auto Hold He is 2/2 in SV/SVO for what its worth. And his skill set is plenty good to keep the job.
Jose Veras Auto Hold Still a lower-tier closer but also much better than most anticipated.
Greg Holland Auto Hold Has been on enough of a roll lately to regain automatic hold status.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Hold He blew another save this week, and when you walk over 5BB/9 you are always walking a fine line. But with only one BS in his last ten he is still an “auto hold.”
Glen Perkins Auto Hold A three save week is great for anyone, and gets him back to his deserved “auto hold” status.
Mariano Rivera Auto Hold A .341 BABIP is making his surface stats look worse than they are. No worries here at all despite a rough two weeks.
Grant Balfour Auto Hold He has the second most saves without blowing one among closers, despite bottom-tier skills among the group.
Oliver Perez Hold Whether he is the closer is up for grabs, so use your best judgment. Yoervis Medina got a save also, and reportedly is in the mix.
Fernando Rodney Lose One good week and he is close to “automatic hold” status. We have seen this story before, like in Late May.
Joe Nathan Auto Hold A big week put him one save behind the MLB leaders
Casey Janssen Auto Hold Still rolling along as an underrated option.
National League
Heath Bell Auto Hold Its time to worry. He has let up runs in five straight games. I have a feeling CIA is going to miss on him.
Craig Kimbrel Auto Hold Only 13 K/9 this year, putting him fourth after Grilli, Chapman and Holland.
Kevin Gregg Auto Hold Still perfect after 11 opportunities.
Aroldis Chapman Auto Hold Despite blowing a save last week he ascends to “auto hold” status as he is 11 for his last 12 in SV/SVO.
Rafael Betancourt Auto Hold Still on the DL but reportedly will be back soon.
Rex Brothers Lose He will be done when Betancourt gets back, thankfully. He has been pitching better but not enough to get a “hold” status yet.
Brandon League Lose After getting a save in the 11th inning on 6/15 he has had no opportunities. Since then Jansen has had three. We can declare this a “hit.”
Kenley Jansen Hold Since being named the close he has converted 3/4 in two weeks. That is enough to say he is officially the closer in our book. A 13.2 K/9 and 1.49 BB/9 puts him in the top tier.
Steve Cishek Auto Hold His skills are still weak but getting close to the minimums. And he has been 7/7 since unofficially getting the job back.
Jim Henderson Hold Not sure what to do with him; since he was activated from the DL he has three SVO, so it is not right to say he lost the job. We are rescinding the “miss” for now.
Francisco Rodriguez Auto Hold He has had two opportunities since Henderson returned from the DL, converting them both and getting his 300th save. This appears to be a sharing arrangement for now.
Bobby Parnell Hold Mets say they have no plans to trade him. I will believe that when he is still a Met in August.
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Lose Wow that was fast. Papelbon blew four saves in a week and now is in serious danger of losing the job to Jesse Crain. Again, CIA responds more quickly than I would have.
Jason Grilli Auto Hold No longer perfect but still baseball’s best reliever.
Huston Street Auto Hold Has not been lights out but is getting the job done and has a long track record of success.
Sergio Romo Hold Converted two opportunities last week and is just short of “auto hold” status.
Edward Mujica Auto Hold The Mujica K/BB Watch is still at 27.0. And his SV/SVO is 21/21, leading the way among most SV without a BS. Arguably the best closer.
Rafael Soriano Hold Continues to climb the charts and breaks into the top ten among SVs with 19.
HITS MISSES
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa
Mitchell Boggs
Shawn Camp
Joaquin Benoit
Phil Coke??
Bruce Rondon??
Joel Hanrahan
Koji Uehara
Steve Cishek
Luke Gregerson
Mike Dunn
Tom Wilhelmsen
Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon League
Jose Valverde
Joe Smith
Andrew Bailey
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