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June 17, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For June 17

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Here are the latest results from the 2012 FSWA Award-Winning Closer Identifier Algorithm. CIA correctly called the job changes for Jose Valverde, Mike Dunn, Luke Gregerson, Tom Wilhelmsen and Francisco Rodriguez and added one “it depends on if they actually had a job change (indicated by “??”) in Brandon League (who never really lost his job). It also “missed” on Jim Henderson, thinking he would get the job back when he returned. The official tally is below, and a full analysis will be posted at USAToday,com tomorrow.

 

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold Just like that he is again tied for the MLB lead in saves.
Andrew Bailey Hold Just misses automatic hold status.
Addison Reed Auto Hold Not a care in the world right now as he rolls along, building on last year’s successes.
Chris Perez Lose If I were him I would be smoking pot also.
Vinnie Pestano Lose He is an enticing siren to fantasy owners, but remember what happens when you don’t tie yourself to the mast when approaching a siren.
Joe Smith Hold He actually got two opportunities since Perez was out and blew them both. But he never really had a share of the job so he is a questionable “hit.” We won;t count him yet as the situation is murky.
Jose Valverde Lose They said he was out and the Benoit got a save. He is done for now, and maybe for good.
Joaquin Benoit Auto Hold Gets an auto hold for a small sample of saves. Skill set is plenty good. Buy with confidence.
Jose Veras Auto Hold He has been a pleasant surprise to those who kept the faith in the early going.
Greg Holland Auto Hold Has been on enough of a roll lately to regain automatic hold status.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Hold Continues to walk a razor’s edge while converting saves
Glen Perkins Hold Had a rough few outings But is still a strong 16/18 in SV/SVO
Mariano Rivera Auto Hold He had a rough week as he got singled and blooped to death on Sunday.
Grant Balfour Auto Hold Still a perfect 17/17 in SV/SVO
Tom Wilhelmsen Lose Lost the job for the short term, and is a “hit.”
Oliver Perez Hold That 97% LOB% isn’t going to last
Fernando Rodney Lose We are sick of him. He converted a save. But in 2 other outings he let up 4 ER and 4 H in 2 IP. Enough already.
Joe Nathan Auto Hold Nathan is as reliable as any closer, and is now 19/20 in SV/SVO
Casey Janssen Auto Hold Skills in precipitous decline as his K/BB plummets to 7.00. That is sarcasm by the way.
National League
Heath Bell Automatic Hold No reason to worry yet; his K rate is still over 10 and his K/BB is 3.75.
Craig Kimbrel Auto Hold Last week he got back to “auto hold” status. This week he got the “S” back on his chest.
Kevin Gregg Auto Hold He is looking like a winner so far, and hasn’t shown any reason for concern, as he has kept his K rate up close to 10.
Aroldis Chapman Hold He is still only one save conversion away from “auto hold” status. Not that it makes a difference in any way; he is going nowhere.
Rafael Betancourt Auto Hold Still on the DL
Rex Brothers Lose He is at 100% in his last two SVO. Other than that, yawn. Overall he is 3/4 so he sheds “auto lose” status.
Brandon League Lose He was out of the job then got two saves. Mattingly just can’t quit him. We are NOT going to count him as a “hit”
Kenley Jansen Lose Whether he ever had or currently has an official share of the job is debatable. But he hasn’t been good when he has gotten SVO.
Mike Dunn Auto Lose He is apparently out, having had virtually no chance to prove himself
Steve Cishek Lose He is back, as we expected a few weeks ago when he lost the job. The Marlins just do not have a good enough pen to oust him. But he is 4/5 since getting the job back.
Jim Henderson Auto Hold His is a very disappointing “miss” for CIA.
Francisco Rodriguez Auto Hold His is a very disappointing “hit” for CIA.
Bobby Parnell Hold Mets say they have no plans to trade him. I will believe that when he is still a Met in August.
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Hold He is back to “stud” status.
Jason Grilli Auto Hold Another week and he is still perfect and still the best closer in baseball.
Huston Street Automatic Hold Returns not a moment too soon for the Padres.
Luke Gregerson Automatic Lose Lost his job so he is a “hit.”
Sergio Romoold Hold A rough week drops him to a temporary “hold” but he will back to automatic status in short order.
Edward Mujica Auto Hold The Mujica K/BB Watch is now up to 27.0 Every week it goes up.
Rafael Soriano Hold He has been climbing the charts for the last five or six weeks, and finally is back where he belongs.
HITS MISSES
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa
Mitchell Boggs Jim Henderson
Shawn Camp
Joaquin Benoit
Phil Coke??
Bruce Rondon??
Joel Hanrahan
Koji Uehara
Steve Cishek
Luke Gregerson
Mike Dunn
Tom Wilhelmsen
Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon League??
Jose Valverde
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