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July 23, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for July 23

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

Changes for this week: Surprisingly, Alfredo Aceves has regressed into “lose” status. His k/BB slipped to 2.4 this week, which also weakened his BPV below the CIA minimum of 80.

Brett Myers’ trade to the White Sox results in a job loss, and another “hit” for CIA. I have lowered CIA’s success rate to 15-3, since certain players that counted as “hits” never really had a share of the job–Mark Melancon, Shawn Camp and James Russell for example. The current record is being as fair as possible, but if you think I missed someone let me know.

Jared Burton, Francisco Cordero, K-Rod and Sergio Romo were added to the spreadsheet this week. Their roles are not yet fully defined enough to merit a determination of what share of the job they have, but we include them anyway as newsworthy.

The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so: is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.

Pitcher CIA result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold  
Alfredo Aceves Lose K/BB and BPV decrease
Addison Reed Hold  
Chris Perez Hold  
Jose Valverde Lose  
Jon Broxton Lose  
Ernesto Frieri Hold K/BB erosion to 2.8. 
Scott Downs Lose  
Glen Perkins Hold  
Jared Burton Hold not clear if he has a share
Rafael Soriano Hold  
Ryan Cook Lose skills and SV/SVO mediocre
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold  
Fernando Rodney Hold  
Joe Nathan Hold  
Casey Janssen Hold  
JJ Putz Hold  
Craig Kimbrel Hold  
Carlos Marmol Lose  
Aroldis Chapman Hold  
Rafael Betancourt Hold  
Brett Myers Lose traded to CWS–hit
Kenley Jansen Hold  
Steve Cishek Lose further skill erosion
Francisco Cordero (HOU) Lose Added in after trade
Frank Francisco Lose  
Bobby Parnell Hold  
Francisco Rodriguez Lose Added in 
Jon Papelbon Hold  
Joel Hanrahan Hold  
Huston Street Hold Perfect SV/SVO
Santiago Casilla Hold  
Sergio Romo Hold no share of job yet-watch
Jason Motte Hold  
Tyler Clippard Hold  
     
     
Hits Misses  
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall  
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek  
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer  
Brian Fuentes    
Rafael Dolis    
Heath Bell    
Henry Rodriguez    
Carlos Marmol    
Javy Guerra    
Grant Balfour    
Brandon League    
Brian Fuentes second time    
Heath Bell second time    
John Axford    
Brett Myers    

 

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