August 27, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For August 27

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Aroldis Chapman, RP, CIN

Here are this week’s Closer Identifier Algorithm results. We have three status changes this week. Also, with the situation in Boston, Aceves is likely going to be a “hit” and we added in Mark Melancon.

Also, Huston Street is on the way back, and this will result in a “hit” for Dale Thayer, though I feel dirty claiming it. This will run the record to a strong 20-4. With Aceves also anticipated to be a “hit” this will run the record to 21-4, which is strong evidence that the algorithm will make better predictions than even the best expert, clinical analysis.

The last bit of news: we have eased the SV/SVO requirement for automatic “hold” status to 90%, down from 93%. It is clear that 93% is far too stringent, but it should be an ratio that is not easily attained.

Pitcher CIA result Comments  
Jim Johnson Hold Racks up saves and is very dependable, but skills are weak so regression is coming, likely next year. Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Alfredo Aceves Lose Suspended three games, and probably done as closer. 73 BPV is below CIA minimums so may be a “hit” next week.  
Andrew Bailey Hold Will need to implode before losing his share of the job.  
Mark Melancon Hold Has been fine since early struggles, and we think he is at least in the mix even if he does not have a share right now.  
Addison Reed Hold Has been solid but not spectacular and a 4.11 ERA doesn’t instill confidence.   
Chris Perez Hold His amazing season continues.  
Jose Valverde Lose 6 for 6 in SV/SVO in last ten, with only 2 ER but let up at least 1 H in each. Just misses the 90% SV/SVO at 26/30.  
Greg Holland Hold 2 wins, 6 saves, 1 R in last ten. K/BB only 2.64 but looks like a solid “hold” otherwise.  
Ernesto Frieri Hold Looking solid. No short-term worries.  
Scott Downs Lose Role is unclear right now-no saves in a month.  
Glen Perkins Hold Still appears to be in a job share, but Burton has zero saves in last five appearances.  
Jared Burton Hold May be at a very slight disadvantage but skills provide no concerns.  
Rafael Soriano Hold Even the most optimistic observer did not see a 33/35 SV/SVO coming.  
Grant Balfour Lose Skills are still weak, but much improved and has been perfect since getting the job. Probably a small risk of implosion.  
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold His first BS since July was a bloop and two OF colliding in a bad play. No worries here.  
Fernando Rodney Hold Battling for “best closer” title at 39/41 SV/SVO, but skills are not close to the best closers. Still, no worries at all here.  
Joe Nathan Hold Texas using him only in save situations, and it is working like a charm.  
Casey Janssen Hold Top skills continuing to shine in the role.  
JJ Putz Hold BPV of 162 is better than other bigger names.  
Craig Kimbrel Hold Still the best closer in baseball.  
Carlos Marmol Hold Amazing resurgence continues, and still has zero BS since April.  
Aroldis Chapman Hold There are no sufficient superlatives for his dominance.  
Rafael Betancourt Hold No short-term worries.  
Kenley Jansen Hold Continues to be rock solid, and will be in the spotlight in September.  
Steve Cishek Lose Tantalizingly close to “hold” status as he is within rounding errors of CIA minimums.  
Wilton Lopez Hold Getting it done with elite, Carlos Silva-like control.  
Frank Francisco Lose If you are asking me why he has two saves in the last ten days, I have no idea other than “lack of imagination” by Collins.  
Jon Rauch Lose Not clear what he will be going forward, but it seems clear he never had a share of the job in any meaningful way.  
John Axford Lose It is obvious at this point that Ron Roenicke has no idea what he is doing with his bullpen management. This is a fireable offense in my view.  
Jim Henderson Hold Reportedly part of the committee going forward.  
Jon Papelbon Hold Only three blown saves, and despite his “bad” contract he is earning his keep.  
Joel Hanrahan Hold As sure as the sunrise, and deserves a bigger stage.  
Huston Street Hold Will be back soon-on rehab now  
Dale Thayer Lose This really shouldn’t count as a ‘hit” and his days are numbered.  
Sergio Romo Hold 155 BPV says he is a legitimate second-tier closer.  
Jeremy Affeldt Lose K/BB down to 2.3, BPV not close to Romo and he is a lefty.   
Javier Lopez Lose Terrible skills but 0 ER in last 19 games keeps him in the mix for now.  
Jason Motte Hold Surging skill set and K rate in the last month.  
Tyler Clippard Hold Still besting CIA but not by a lot, and is a good example of how CIA can be used to compare closers.   
Hits Misses    
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall    
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek    
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer    
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell    
Rafael Dolis      
Heath Bell      
Henry Rodriguez      
Carlos Marmol      
Javy Guerra      
Grant Balfour      
Brandon League      
Brian Fuentes second time      
Heath Bell second time      
John Axford      
Brett Myers      
Francisco Cordero (HOU)      
Francisco Rodriguez       
Jonathon Broxton      
Ryan Cook      
Santiago Casilla      

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