August 19, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For August 19

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For August 19
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Here are this week’s results for the 2012 FSWA Award Winning Closer Identifier Algorithm. This week CIA notched another “hit” on Ernesto Frieri, bringing the ledger to 21 correct predictions against 3 incorrect predictions. The comment below on the Astros’ pen is 100% serious, and a full analysis will follow tomorrow at There are still more status changes than one would expect this late in the year, and Mariano Rivera maintains his “auto lose” status for at least one more day.


Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Lose 39/48 in SV/SVO is ugly.
Koji Uehara Hold His 8.56 K/BB is good enough for third among closers.
Addison Reed Auto Hold After a slight rough patch in June, Reed has been lights out.
Chris Perez Lose Fails CIA’s new criteria from last week by a hair. He is probably going to get a “hold” or better in short order.
Joaquin Benoit Auto Hold Baseball’s Most Perfect Closer for now at 16/16 in SV/SVO.
Greg Holland Auto Hold Still the best for our money.
Dane De La Rosa Hold Not exactly mowing them down, and only barely gets a “hold.”
Ernesto Frieri Auto Lose He has lost the job to De La Rosa so he goes down as another “hit.”
Glen Perkins Auto Hold His 6.00 K/BB is just behind Romo and good enough for fifth among closers.
Mariano Rivera Auto Lose Converted his only opportunity this week, and one more gets him back in the black.
Grant Balfour Auto Hold No longer perfect but damn close.
Houston Astros Damned if I know They (and we) are completely in the dark and up in the air, so until next week, we will sit and wait and see if anyone shows anything.
Danny Farquhar Hold 7/8 in SV/SVO and no worries for me at all.
Fernando Rodney Auto Lose His last three outings have been in non-save situations. Is he done?
Joe Nathan Auto Hold K/BB is dangerously close to falling below CIA’s minimum
Casey Janssen Hold Keeps chugging along with consistent performance, but nothing more.
National League
Brad Ziegler Lose  This was only a matter of time.
Craig Kimbrel Auto Hold After Jim Johnson’s bad week Kimbrel tied for the saves lead.
Kevin Gregg Auto Lose Converted his last three opportunities.
Aroldis Chapman Auto Hold His K rate is up to 15.69.
Rafael Betancourt Auto Hold CIA does not speculate, so until he gets a SVO he is in limbo.
Rex Brothers Auto Hold He just misses failing CIA’s new criteria, and may be out by next week.
Kenley Jansen Auto Hold His 8.80 K/BB is good enough for second among closers.
Steve Cishek Auto Hold Take out the first two months and he is baseball’s best closer with 22 straight conversions.
Jim Henderson Auto Hold Converted his last 8 SVO with only one hit in that span, and is living up to his status as one of CIA’s darlings.
Bobby Parnell Auto Hold Still hasn’t pitched this month.
Latroy Hawkins Lose Has pitched surprisingly well, just not well enough to be a legitimate closer as yet.
Jonathan Papelbon Hold Hasn’t converted a save since July 11, but that is a matter of opportunity. No longer in imminent danger.
Mark Melancon Auto Hold No one asked me, but “Dancin’ with Melancon?” Really?
Huston Street Auto Hold Continues to show improvement each week.
Sergio Romo Auto Hold Solid and consistent, what more can you ask for in the second tier of closers?
Edward Mujica Auto Hold The K/BB watch is down to 13.67 after, gasp, he walked someone this week.
Rafael Soriano Lose Constantly walking a fine line, Soriano now fails the new criteria added last week.
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa
Mitchell Boggs Jim Henderson
Shawn Camp Oliver Perez
Joaquin Benoit
Phil Coke??
Bruce Rondon??
Joel Hanrahan
Koji Uehara
Steve Cishek
Luke Gregerson
Mike Dunn
Tom Wilhelmsen
Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon League
Jose Valverde
Joe Smith
Andrew Bailey
Rex Brothers
Vinnie Pestano
Tom Wilhelmsen 2
Heath Bell
Ernesto Frieri

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