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April 28, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for April 29

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results for April 29
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This week I am adding a new wrinkle. There are players that I choose, subjectively, to include in CIA analyses, even if they do not have a share of the job. It is not clear how much these subjective decisions change the results, if at all. So, to potentially examine  the issue, I am including these players NOT as official “hits” or “misses” but will continue to list them, and tally the outcome separately. These players are listed with two question marks in the results. They will not affect the official results yet, but since this is still an experiment I welcome any input on the pros and cons.

The biggest factor in the status changes right now is early-season results normalization. Because of the automatic  ”hold” or “lose” based on SV/SVO, a few closers had automatic “lose” statuses simply because they blew an early save. Those pitchers are now getting enough opportunities to even things out. Steve Cishek, Greg Holland and Jose Veras are examples of this, but J.J. Putz is not, at least yet.

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Hold A perfect 10/10
Joel Hanrahan Lose Due back this week, so we will see if CIA gets it right.
Andrew Bailey Hold  
Addison Reed Hold continues to build on his successful debut but skills not first-tier
Chris Perez Hold Has righted his ship and should be fine here on out
Jose Valverde Hold A perfect 2/2 out of the gate. 
Joaquin Benoit Lose Hit 
Phil Coke Lose I will not count him as a “hit” since it is not clear he had a share of the job
Jose Veras Hold Skills are rock solid as in the past, and with a recent SV conversion he now gets “hold” status.
Greg Holland Hold A strong week has gained “hold” status
Kelvin Herrera Hold Holland has likely repelled his challenge. Never really had a share of the job. Will delete him next week unless something changes
Ernesto Frieri Hold Only 3 SV and off to a weak start, skills-wise, but is 3/3 in SV/SVO
Glen Perkins Hold No worries
Mariano Rivera Hold Just like that he is 8/8
Grant Balfour Hold The Frieri comment above applies exactly to Balfour also. 
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold K rate is way down, so we will see if that is a fluke or an omen.
Fernando Rodney Lose We are the only ones who think he loses the job.
Joe Nathan Hold Is like clockwork.
Casey Janssen Hold Still has not walked anyone as of Sunday.
National League    
JJ Putz Lose K rate is fine, so his troubles appear to be short-term, and whether this is a hit or not  depends on the manager not Putz
Matt Reynolds Hold Doesn’t yet have a share of the job, but with two saves, he might get a shot.
David Hernandez Hold No share yet but skills merit a “hold”
Craig Kimbrel Hold Actually blew a save.
Kyuji Fujikawa Hold He has likely lost his job when he returns. 
Kevin Gregg Hold I am as shocked as anyone.
Aroldis Chapman Hold Ho hum.
Rafael Betancourt Hold he is an auto hold
Brandon League Hold 3.60 K rate is a joke. But as long as he keeps converting he will be safe.
Steve Cishek Hold Like many other early on the skills are fine but the SV/SVO was weak. He is fine now.
Jim Henderson Hold We are not even including Axford in the discussion and if we are wrong so be it.
Bobby Parnell Hold Off to a fine start.
Jonathan Papelbon Hold K rate is low so far, but nothing to worry about yet.
Jason Grilli Hold An unlikely candidate for Best Reliever but he is 10/10
Huston Street Hold only 4 K in 9 IP and 4 BB. But 4/4 in SV/SVO. That’s a lot of fours.
Sergio Romo Hold My new favorite reliever.
Edward Mujica Hold My new second favorite reliever.
Rafael Soriano Hold Converting SVs but not a top reliever, but firmly in second tier.
     
HITS MISSES  
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??  
John Axford    
Mitchell Boggs    
Shawn Camp    
Joaquin Benoit    
Phil Coke??    
Bruce Rondon??    

 

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