All statuses are based on stats through Sunday’s games.
On twitter, Eric Mack of SI.com raised an issue that evinced a misunderstanding of what this experiment is about, but his question was a good one, worthy of an explanation. The predictions are put out on a weekly basis. But that does not mean that CIA predicts a player will lose a job that week. It is a convenience borne out of the fact that a) I am not going to do this every day because I am not that dedicated, and b) I have a column to write every week. These are not “predictions” but descriptions of a pitcher’s status as a closer, if that makes sense.
The driving idea behind CIA is that it is a substitute for a clinical analysis, and the thesis is that it will make better predictions than a traditional clinical analysis, as proven in the Philip Tetlock Study. There is no difference between Fantasy Baseball pundits and political/economics/business/government pundits. So why should we view ourselves as being able to make better predictions than these so-called “experts?” CIA is a way to challenge the idea that fantasy baseball pundits can make better predictions that the masses.
When you or I think to ourselves after reading an article or watching a game that “Mitchell Boggs is going to lose his job,” do you mean that he will lose it this week? Clearly not. And your opinion will change over time as Boggs’, or anyone else’s, performance changes. This is what CIA does; it responds to changing information on a regular basis in the same way that we do and makes predictions the same way that we do. It is not a compilation of weekly projections for that week.
If it were a set of weekly projections its record would be deceiving, just as yours would be, and that is not what it is about. At the end of the year, for example, there were 35 possible statuses among relievers. It would be silly to say “each week it got 29 right and so in September its record was 116-24.” That is not what we do in our own clinical analyses and it would be very easy to approach 100% if that were the methodology and the goal. But it would be wrong, not a reflection of reality and would defeat the stated purpose above.
The USAToday.com columns have done a lot of explanations of what this experiment is about and this point was addressed early on, but it is worth mentioning again. As for trying to predict who will get a job, my view is that it is a fool’s errand for the most part, and I am not going to make bad predictions or give bad advice based on speculation merely because readers may want it. I leave that to the foolish. I try to add players in when they are discussed as having a share of the job, but do not rate them as a “hit” or “miss” unless they actually have a share. So, I guess I am a little foolish as well.
On to the current statuses:
|Jim Johnson||Hold||Just keeps on converting saves like clockwork.|
|Joel Hanrahan||Lose||Yeah right, his hamstring is hurt.|
|Chris Perez||Lose||SV/SVO only 50% but probably safe|
|Joaquin Benoit||Lose||Off to a slow start but nominally the closer. Status change likely.|
|Phil Coke||Lose||Not ready to call this a “hit” yet for CIA|
|Jose Veras||Lose||Do you really care?|
|Greg Holland||Lose||No longer automatic “lose” based on SV/SVO but in short sample anything can happen. Not ready to call it a “hit.”|
|Kelvin Herrera||Hold||Right now he looks like Kimbrel and Chapman.|
|Grant Balfour||Hold||SV/SVO is 100% but only one opportunity|
|Tom Wilhelmsen||Hold||Right now he is as good as anyone.|
|Fernando Rodney||Lose||SV/SVO is 50% so still has a ‘lose” status.|
|Kyuji Fujikawa||Hold||4.00 K/BB and 66% SV/SVO|
|Rafael Betancourt||Hold||A perfect 5/5 in SV/SVO|
|Brandon League||Hold||Gets an auto “hold” at 4/4 in SV/SVO but skills still terrible.|
|Steve Cishek||Lose||Still zero saves, but skill set is fine so he will likely get a “hold” shortly.|
|Jim Henderson||Hold||So far so good.|
|Bobby Parnell||Hold||Zero BB so far.|
|Jason Grilli||Hold||Off to a surprising start|
|Sergio Romo||Hold||As good as there is in baseball|
|Mitchell Boggs||Lose||Hasnâ€™t officially lost the job as of this writing.|
|Trevor Rosenthal||Hold||A 10.00 K/BB (!)|
|Rafael Soriano||Hold||Off to a strong start.|
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