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August 12, 2013 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results – August 12

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results – August 12
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After a few high-profile job losses by Heath Bell, Tom Wilhelmsen and possibly Ernesto Frieri (who may still have a share of the job) it is clear that CIA needs a concrete way to predict guys pitching badly in non-save opportunities. All of these guys, and a few others on this week’s list, have pitched terribly in recent outings but were spared “lose” status simply because their poor performance did not reflect on their SV conversion rate.

To fill that gap, we are adding the following criteria: if a pitcher has an overall K/BB ratio below  2.00, or has let up 6 ER or more in his last ten outings, he gets “automatic lose” status. As always, this is an experiment, so if these criteria need tweaking we will do so.

Three pitchers fail these new criteria: Fernando Rodney, Kevin Gregg and Ernesto Frieri this week. Plus a big name gets his first ever “auto lose” status.

The only other tweak is that I am removing “automatic hold” status if the pitcher has fewer than five opportunities.

The full version of the new algorithm will be up tomorrow at USAToday.com. The official tally is 20-3:

Pitcher CIA Result Comments
Jim Johnson Auto Hold It has been a rocky year, but he is still 9 for his last 10 in SV/SVO
Koji Uehara Hold Is only one save away from “auto hold” status.
Addison Reed Hold Has been on a slight roll lately, but not enough to get “auto hold” status.
Chris Perez Auto Hold His skills are now below CIA minimums with a 2.36 K/BB
Joaquin Benoit Auto Hold Baseball’s leader in perfect save chances without a blemish at 14/14.
Greg Holland Auto Hold It says here he is baseball’s best, Kimbrel and others be damned.
Dane De La Rosa Hold Barely beats the minimum requirements, but beats them, so for now consider him safe.
Ernesto Frieri Auto Lose Like Fernando Rodney, Frieri fails and earns “auto lose” status. Whether he still has a share of the job is an open question.
Glen Perkins Auto Hold Still the game’s most underrated closer, though is being challenged by Jim Henderson.
Mariano Rivera Auto Lose This is a short term status change for sure.
Grant Balfour Auto Hold 30/31 in SV/SVO and over 10K/9? Hard to believe after last year.
Tom Wilhelmsen Auto Lose Lost job, and is a “hit.”
Danny Farquhar Hold I like him a ton-he is potentially a great closer right now.
Fernando Rodney Auto Lose Barely beats CIA’s new “auto lose” criteria of a K/BB below 2.00 and fails the new 6 ER criteria.
Joe Nathan Auto Hold 34/36 in SV/SVO
Casey Janssen Hold His biggest problem is a paucity of opportunity. But he is not the same guy he was last year.
National League
Brad Ziegler Auto Hold  Still perfect since getting the job.
Craig Kimbrel Auto Hold A 96% LOB% is insane-but not as much is luck as it seems. He has been over 90% in 3 of the last 4 years
Kevin Gregg Auto Lose Fails the new CIA criteria but is 8/10 in last ten SVO.
Aroldis Chapman Auto Hold K/BB of 3.81 is not even close to elite-he is starting to drop in the overall rankings.
Rex Brothers Auto Hold Still perfect since Betancourt’s injury.
Kenley Jansen Auto Hold He is a better closer than Chapman and Kimbrel.
Steve Cishek Auto Hold His roller coaster year is nothing but downhills the rest of the way and he is coasting.
Jim Henderson Auto Hold He is still perfect since getting the job back, and hasn’t let up a run in his last ten outings.
Bobby Parnell Auto Hold His status is up in the air as of this writing.
Jonathan Papelbon Auto Lose 6 of his last 7 appearances have been in non-save situations and he is only 20/26 in SV/SVO. Perhaps baseball’s worst closer.
Mark Melancon Auto Hold He is a not-as-good version of Edward Mujica, and that is not faint praise.
Huston Street Auto Hold His once pathetic K/9 is now almost up to CIA minimums, and he hasn’t blown a save since May.
Sergio Romo Auto Hold Just as we expected, he earned back his “auto hold” status.
Edward Mujica Auto Hold The Mujica K/BB Watch is back up to 20.00.
Rafael Soriano Auto Hold Gets the job done but far from elite.
HITS MISSES
Carlos Marmol Kelvin Herrera??
John Axford Kyuji Fujikawa
Mitchell Boggs Jim Henderson
Shawn Camp Oliver Perez
Joaquin Benoit
Phil Coke??
Bruce Rondon??
Joel Hanrahan
Koji Uehara
Steve Cishek
Luke Gregerson
Mike Dunn
Tom Wilhelmsen
Francisco Rodriguez
Brandon League
Jose Valverde
Joe Smith
Andrew Bailey
Rex Brothers
Vinnie Pestano
Tom Wilhelmsen 2
Heath Bell
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