It was a mixed week for CIA as it racked up a hit on Brian Fuentes, who lost his closer job for the second time this season, and perhaps the final time of his career. But, it also added a miss on Dale Thayer, who ceded his job to incumbent Huston Street.
As with the other misses, all have easy explanations, and the question then becomes whether to add a criterion for these explanations. In Thayer’s case we might add a criterion for pitchers that are keeping the seat warm for an injured incumbent. However, part of the value of a system like this is avoiding those judgmental lapses and logical fallacies that arise when we try to do a full-fledged analysis.
CIA is dispassionate and ruthless. It was possible that Thayer might have held the job; and with a lot of closers coming back from injuries, job loss etc. we want to identify situations where the temp may be better than the incumbent.
So, we will not make a chance to the criteria based on place-holders. Two situations to watch in this regard are the Yankees with David Robertson on the comeback trail, and in Washington with Drew Storen. CIA says Soriano will lose the job as of this writing, but he is 9-9 in SVO% and is one save away from “hold” status. If these injured incumbents grab their jobs back when they return then we will add a criterion, but for the single case of Thayer/Street we will not.
Here is the latest spreadsheet:
|Pitcher||CIA result||Reason for Change/Comments|
|Rafael Soriano||Lose||one save away from “hold” status|
|Brian Fuentes||Lose||Lost job second time–Hit|
|Ryan Cook||Lose||BABIP only .130-Added|
|JJ Putz||Hold||Skills are rock solid per CIA|
|Shawn Camp||Hold||No saves yet-role in flux-Russell weak|
|Frank Francisco||Hold||Solidifying “hold” status|
|Joel Hanrahan||Lose||BS drops SV% < 95% but skills close to “hold”|
|Dale Thayer||Hold||Lost job on Street return-MISS|
|Jason Motte||Hold||BARELY meets CIA criteria|
|Tyler Clippard||Hold||Will he hold off Storen?|
|Hector Santiago||Sean Marshall|
|Scott Downs||Steve Cishek|
|Jordan Walden||Dale Thayer|
|Brian Fuentes second time|
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