June 10, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Predictions June 10

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It was a mixed week for CIA as it racked up a hit on Brian Fuentes, who lost his closer job for the second time this season, and perhaps the final time of his career. But, it also added a miss on Dale Thayer, who ceded his job to incumbent Huston Street.

As with the other misses, all have easy explanations, and the question then becomes whether to add a criterion for these explanations. In Thayer’s case we might add a criterion for pitchers that are keeping the seat warm for an injured incumbent. However, part of the value of a system like this is avoiding those judgmental lapses and logical fallacies that arise when we try to do a full-fledged analysis.

CIA is dispassionate and ruthless. It was possible that Thayer might have held the job; and with a lot of closers coming back from injuries, job loss etc. we want to identify situations where the temp may be better than the incumbent.

So, we will not make a chance to the criteria based on place-holders. Two situations to watch in this regard are the Yankees with David Robertson on the comeback trail, and in Washington with Drew Storen. CIA says Soriano will lose the job as of this writing, but he is 9-9 in SVO% and is one save away from “hold” status. If these injured incumbents grab their jobs back when they return then we will add a criterion, but for the single case of Thayer/Street we will not.

Here is the latest spreadsheet:

Pitcher CIA result Reason for Change/Comments
Jim Johnson Hold
Alfredo Aceves Hold
Addison Reed Hold
Chris Perez Hold
Jose Valverde Lose
Jon Broxton Lose
Ernesto Frieri Hold
Matt Capps Lose
Rafael Soriano Lose one save away from “hold” status
Brian Fuentes Lose Lost job second time–Hit
Ryan Cook Lose BABIP only .130-Added
Grant Balfour Lose Added 
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold Added
Fernando Rodney Hold
Joe Nathan Hold
Casey Janssen Hold
JJ Putz Hold Skills are rock solid per CIA
Craig Kimbrel Hold
James Russell Lose
Shawn Camp Hold No saves yet-role in flux-Russell weak
Aroldis Chapman Hold
Rafael Betancourt Hold
Brett Myers Lose
Kenley Jansen Hold
Heath Bell Lose
Steve Cishek Hold
John Axford Hold
Frank Francisco Hold Solidifying “hold” status
Jon Papelbon Hold
Joel Hanrahan Lose BS drops SV% < 95% but skills close to “hold”
Dale Thayer Hold Lost job on Street return-MISS
Huston Street Hold
Santiago Casilla Hold
Jason Motte Hold BARELY meets CIA criteria
Tyler Clippard Hold Will he hold off Storen?
Hits Misses
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall
Scott Downs Steve Cishek
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer
Brian Fuentes
Rafael Dolis
Heath Bell
Scott Downs
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Marmol
Javy Guerra
Grant Balfour
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes second time

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