June 18, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Predictions as of June 17

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Here are the latest results as of June 17.  There were a few significant changes. CIA’s record remains an outstanding 13-3 and with Shawn Camp on the ropes it is very likely to be 14-3 in short order.

Heath Bell becomes a “hold,” since he is a stunning (at least to me) 11-11 in SV/SVO% since he regained the role. This is another good example where an algorithm will do better than a clinical analysis. My feelings towards Bell would undoubtedly color my analysis and lead me to a bad conclusion based on my emotions and confirmation bias. An algorithm does not have that flaw.

Two surprises this week are Tyler Clippard and Carlos Marmol. Clippard is now faced with a “lose” job status, and none too soon since Drew Storen may be back soon.

The fact that Marmol has the job back should make every Cubs’ fan sad. Last week, erstwhile closer Shawn Camp was a “hold,” but a disastrous week, topped off by a Sunday performance with 2 ER and 0 IP dropped him to “lose” status. It is almost a certainty to be announced that Marmol is back in the closer role if it has not already happened in fact.

Rafael Soriano is still in “lose” status. And David Robertson is back. It may be a matter of the next two weeks for Soriano; if he can solidify his position he may get to “hold” status, but one or two bad outings and Robertson will likely regain the role.

Lastly, Joel Hanrahan finally gets into “hold” status, which we have been saying for a few weeks. It will all be good for him from here on out unless he gets hurt.

Pitcher CIA result Reason for Change/Comments
Jim Johnson Hold
Alfredo Aceves Hold
Addison Reed Hold
Chris Perez Hold
Jose Valverde Lose
Jon Broxton Lose
Ernesto Frieri Hold
Matt Capps Lose
Rafael Soriano Lose
Ryan Cook Lose
Grant Balfour Lose Cook anointed the closer.
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold
Brandon League Lose Added back in 
Fernando Rodney Hold
Joe Nathan Hold
Casey Janssen Hold
JJ Putz Hold
Craig Kimbrel Hold
James Russell Lose
Shawn Camp Lose Role in flux with Marmol
Carlos Marmol Lose Added back in 
Aroldis Chapman Hold
Rafael Betancourt Hold
Brett Myers Lose 94% SV/SVO makes him close to “hold”
Kenley Jansen Hold
Heath Bell Hold 11 for 11 since regaining role
John Axford Lose K/BB 2.1 
Frank Francisco Hold
Jon Papelbon Hold
Joel Hanrahan Hold BPV increase to 86
Huston Street Hold
Santiago Casilla Hold
Jason Motte Hold
Tyler Clippard Lose K/BB dips below 2.5
Hits Misses
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall
Scott Downs Steve Cishek
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer
Brian Fuentes
Rafael Dolis
Heath Bell
Scott Downs
Henry Rodriguez
Carlos Marmol
Javy Guerra
Grant Balfour
Brandon League
Brian Fuentes second time

Here is the current version of CIA:

The current version of CIA:
1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.
If so: Since he got the role or regained the role is his SV% greater than 95% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.
2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?
3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?
4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?
If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.
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