October 5, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Final Results

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The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so, is his save percentage greater than 90% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.


Pitcher CIA result Final Result  
Jim Johnson Hold Hit-Moderate Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Andrew Bailey Lose Miss- this is a case of a short sample fluctuation.Moderate. Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers.
Addison Reed Hold Hit-moderate Note: Automatic hold and lose status is based on season AND last ten
Chris Perez Hold Hit-moderate Note: When a closer loses a job without announcement we go back to the day after his last save.
Jose Valverde Lose Miss- His case is not unexpected, since skills did not deter manager.-Easy Note: Easy cases are cases everyone could get right. Moderate cases are 66% shots and Tough cases are ones that I think were tougher than 50-50 to get right. All judged by the day the got the job.
Greg Holland Hold Hit-Moderate  
Ernesto Frieri Hold Hit-Tough  
Glen Perkins Hold Hit-Tough  
Rafael Soriano Hold Hit-Easy  
Grant Balfour Hold Hit-Tough  
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold Hit-Tough  
Fernando Rodney Hold Hit-Tough  
Joe Nathan Hold Hit-Easy  
Casey Janssen Hold Hit-Moderate  
J.J. Putz Hold Hit-Easy  
Craig Kimbrel Hold Hit-Easy  
Carlos Marmol Hold Hit-Tough  
Aroldis Chapman Hold Hit-Easy  
Jonathon Broxton Lose Hit-Easy  
Rafael Betancourt Hold Hit-Easy  
Kenley Jansen Hold Miss–tough -Never got an opportunity after his return from heart trouble.  
Ronald Belisario Lose Hit-moderate  
Brandon League Lose Miss-tough-  
Steve Cishek Hold Hit–status change based on 14/15 SV/SVO-Easy  
Wilton Lopez Hold Hit-Moderate  
Frank Francisco Hold Hit-Tough  
John Axford Hold Hit-Tough  
Jon Papelbon Hold Hit-Easy  
Joel Hanrahan Hold Hit-Easy  
Luke Gregerson Hold Miss-as an injury replacement these are the toughest cases–we may alter it next year to ignore injury replacements. Easy  
Huston Street Hold Hit-Moderate  
Sergio Romo Hold Hit-Moderate  
Javier Lopez Lose Hit-his last save was 9/11 and Romo had three since then and all 9th inning opps.–Moderate  
Jason Motte Hold Hit-Easy  
Tyler Clippard Hold Miss-Tough. Lost job in the last games of the year after holding it all year.  
Hits Misses    
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall    
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek    
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer    
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell    
Rafael Dolis Jared Burton    
Heath Bell Jim Henderson    
Henry Rodriguez      
Carlos Marmol      
Javy Guerra      
Grant Balfour      
Brandon League      
Brian Fuentes second time      
Heath Bell second time      
John Axford      
Brett Myers      
Francisco Cordero (HOU)      
Francisco Rodriguez       
Jonathon Broxton      
Ryan Cook      
Santiago Casilla      
Alfredo Aceves      
Scott Downs       
Jeremy Affeldt      
Dale Thayer (second shot)      
Jonathon Broxton (Reds)      



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