September 4, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm (CIA) Results September 4

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

Here are this week’s CIA results. We add in “hits” for Alfredo Aceves, Scott Downs and Jeremy Affeldt. CIA faces a possible losses in Jared Burton. We also have some additions, including Ronald Belisario and Luke Gregerson. The tally is 23 “hits” and four “misses.” A few status changes:

-Steve Cishek gets a “hold.”

-Andrew Bailey gets a “lose,” but sample is tiny.

-Ronald Belisario gets a “lose” by a small amount.

The algorithm:

The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so, is his save percentage greater than 90% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.

Pitcher CIA result Comments  
Jim Johnson Hold SV/SVO keeps him safe. But skills look at regression for next year. Note: The SV/SVO for automatic “hold” has been eased to 90%
Alfredo Aceves Lose He is done as a closer, and not a moment too soon.  Note: Closers cannot lose jobs by getting hurt, but interim closers can lose jobs by returning injured closers.
Andrew Bailey Lose Again, his status doesn’t matter since the sample is so small, and he has no shot at losing the job absent injury. Note: Every player with a share, no matter how long it lasts, is included and will generate a result.
Mark Melancon Lose Probably has no shot at a share of the job, but we will keep him on the list for another week.  
Addison Reed Hold ERA of 4.27 could be better.  
Chris Perez Hold No worries.  
Jose Valverde Lose Just when I thought he would hit the 90% mark he blows a save, and is now 28-32.  
Greg Holland Hold Skills are more than good enough, and now is 10-10 in last ten SVO.  
Ernesto Frieri Hold FB orientation give us slight pause, and BB rate is counterbalanced by K rate, so this is a fine line.  
Glen Perkins Hold 10 saves is a nice surprise.  
Jared Burton Hold Zero saves in the last month; his job status is an issue. I have not seen any official announcements, so this could be a “miss.”  
Rafael Soriano Hold 14.0 K/BB in the last month. No worries.  
Grant Balfour Lose He is 9-9 in last ten as of this writing, so by the time you read this he might be a “hold.”  
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold Has walked more than he has struck out in the last month, which gives us some concern.   
Fernando Rodney Hold ERA+ of 516 is insane; prior to this year it was 101.  
Joe Nathan Hold No worries.  
Casey Janssen Hold No worries.  
J.J. Putz Hold Matt Lindstrom comes over for Joe Saunders, but doesn’t matter to Putsches blown his last two SVO.  
Craig Kimbrel Hold Still has the best BPV at 262, so keeps his title as best closer in baseball.  
Carlos Marmol Hold He is as shaky as a guy can be who has converted 17 straight saves.  
Aroldis Chapman Hold 245 BPV just a notch below Kimbrel, but will be a tight race. He is probably the most talented pitcher that ever lived.  
Rafael Betancourt Hold Has seen a skills decline in the last month, but still safe.  
Kenley Jansen Hold Probably out for the season.   
Ronald Belisario Lose He vaults to the top of the Dodgers’ pen, and his skills seem legit, but the 2.4 K/BB is a rounding error away from “hold” status.  
Steve Cishek Hold His K/BB rate just cannot get to the 2.5 minimum, no matter how hard he tries. But he is 11-12 in SV/SVO since getting the job back, so he is a ‘hold.”   
Wilton Lopez Hold 144 BPV puts him at the back end of the second-tier closers, but that is a great result for him. No worries for now.  
Frank Francisco Lose May have turned the corner to get back to the “hold” status he earned earlier in the year. Is 5-5 since return in SV-SVO  
John Axford Lose BPV jumps to 101, but K/BB still slightly below 2.5. Not sure what to make.  
Jim Henderson Hold Given his usage it seems clear that he is likely out of a share of the job, but we will wait one more week since Axford can blow up at any time and the manager is flighty.  
Jon Papelbon Hold No worries.  
Joel Hanrahan Hold No worries.  
Huston Street Hold Not on DL but is going to be evaluated today, and as of this writing we don’t have information yet.  
Dale Thayer Lose 2-3 since his return in saves, and spent the weekend on the paternity list. Status is up in the air. May have lost the job. K/9 is 6.99 per fangraphs.  
Luke Gregerson Hold 2011 looks like an outlier in his skill set; he has returned to his dominant form.  
Sergio Romo Hold Perfect since the committee was formed.  
Jeremy Affeldt Lose 2.4 K/BB and success of Romo and Lopez is bad news for his chances. Zero saves since August 7. I am declaring this a “hit.”  
Javier Lopez Lose In the Giants’ last nine SVO Romo has 5 saves and Lopez has 4.  
Jason Motte Hold Solid but a third-tier guy.  
Tyler Clippard Hold Continues to hold on to the job.  
Hits Misses    
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall    
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek    
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer    
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell    
Rafael Dolis      
Heath Bell      
Henry Rodriguez      
Carlos Marmol      
Javy Guerra      
Grant Balfour      
Brandon League      
Brian Fuentes second time      
Heath Bell second time      
John Axford      
Brett Myers      
Francisco Cordero (HOU)      
Francisco Rodriguez       
Jonathon Broxton      
Ryan Cook      
Santiago Casilla      
Alfredo Aceves      
Scott Downs       
Jeremy Affeldt      

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