August 20, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

Closer Identifier Algorithm Results For August 20

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Joel Hanrahan, PIT

Here are this week’s results with predictions. Two status changes this week.

Pitcher CIA result Comments
Jim Johnson Lose Skills eroding almost every week. But cant argue with 37/40.
Alfredo Aceves Hold BPV exactly 80 changes status.
Addison Reed Hold 4.0 K/BB ratio in last month solidifies spot.
Chris Perez Hold Amazingly, no worries at all.
Jose Valverde Lose Still arguably the worst closer in baseball.
Greg Holland Hold Just like that he is now a “hold,” as he has taken well to the role
Ernesto Frieri Hold Probably a bit lucky, and K/BB of 2.9 is not great for his K rate but shows good closers can be found.
Scott Downs Lose Back sooner than expected, role remains to be seen.
Glen Perkins Hold No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.
Jared Burton Hold No changes this week-still part of a solid duo.
Rafael Soriano Hold HR/FB still a low 2%, but had a good week and is a solid “hold.”
Grant Balfour Lose Appears to be a new man in the last month and 4-4 since he got the job back. And skills MUCH improved-close to ‘hold” status.
Tom Wilhelmsen Hold No worries at all.
Fernando Rodney Hold Made headlines by actually blowing a save. Who thought that would happen?
Joe Nathan Hold Practically a perfect skill set.
Casey Janssen Hold Has literally no flaws and no reason for concern. One of the best in the game right now.
JJ Putz Hold Only thing holding him back is lack of opportunities, but skill set is one of the best.
Craig Kimbrel Hold 251 BPV? Insane.
Carlos Marmol Hold Believe it or not, has still not blown a save since April and is 14-14 since.
Aroldis Chapman Hold Watching him is like watching a pitcher who dropped in to the majors from a higher league.
Rafael Betancourt Hold Worried about next year, but almost no chance of job loss this year.
Kenley Jansen Hold A solid second-tier closer with a non-zero chance at being first-tier next year.
Steve Cishek Lose Still a “lose” but has been very good the last month, solidifying his job. And has been see-sawing between ‘hold” and ‘lose” all year.
Wilton Lopez Hold Doing it with miniscule BB rate. Last time that happened his K/BB dropped by 2/3 the next year.
Frank Francisco Lose Cannot yet consider him out of the role, but he was brought in during an 8-1 game and let up enough that Rauch got the save. Then got the save on 8/18. 
Jon Rauch Lose Added in with 2 saves last week. Weak K rate gives him a “lose” status.
John Axford Lose No saves since 8/6 but not quite ready to declare him a “hit” for CIA just yet.
Jim Henderson Hold Shaky lately and rules don’t really apply to this small of a sample. But 5.7 K/BB is strong.
Jon Papelbon Hold No danger.
Joel Hanrahan Hold One of the most dependable in the game.
Huston Street Hold Injured.
Luke Gregerson Hold Still has zero saves so doesn’t have a share of the job. Will remove if this continues.
Dale Thayer Lose Added in. K rate too low for “hold” if he has a share. Has one save since Street got hurt.
Sergio Romo Hold Probably has no share of the role and still has zero saves since Casilla deposed, but hard to say.
Jeremy Affeldt Hold Appears to have the job alone but lack of opportunities makes it impossible to say.
Jason Motte Hold Why did he spend so much time in LaRussa’s dog house?
Tyler Clippard Hold 2.7 K/BB, inevitable regression to the mean and presence of Storen make him vulnerable.
Hits Misses  
Hector Santiago Sean Marshall  
Francisco Cordero (TOR) Steve Cishek  
Jordan Walden Dale Thayer  
Brian Fuentes Bobby Parnell  
Rafael Dolis    
Heath Bell    
Henry Rodriguez    
Carlos Marmol    
Javy Guerra    
Grant Balfour    
Brandon League    
Brian Fuentes second time    
Heath Bell second time    
John Axford    
Brett Myers    
Francisco Cordero (HOU)    
Francisco Rodriguez     
Jonathon Broxton    
Ryan Cook    
Santiago Casilla    


The current version of CIA:

1. Does the pitcher have a share of the closer’s job? In the cases we are writing about this will usually be yes, but it should apply to all relievers if it is valid.

If so, is his save percentage greater than 93% with 10 or more opportunities. If “yes” then “hold.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

Is the pitcher’s save percentage less than or equal to 60% over his last 10 opportunities? If “yes” then “lose.” If “no” proceed to step 2.

2. Is his strikeout rate (K/9) above 7.0?

3. Is his strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) rate above 2.5?

4. Is his BaseballHQ BPV above 80?

If the answer to conditions 2-4 is yes, then CIA predicts he’ll keep the job. If the answer is no to any one of the conditions, it predicts he’ll lose the job.

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