May 21, 2012 posted by Patrick DiCaprio

CIA Spreadsheet as of May 21

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Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore Orioles

Here are the latest results of the Closer Identifier Algorithm. There are a few changes from last week, and we have added a comments column to explain why. 

During the year we may be tweaking the algorithm, and trying to get as high predictive accuracy as possible. Then, next year, I am going to challenge a bunch of fantasy analysts to a contest in making predictions against CIA.

One tweak we have made already is to apply it regardless of sample size. This change results in Jordan Walden becoming a “hit.” It missed on Sean Marshall, since Chapman is just so good.

Tune in to USA Today’s Fantasy Windup for the latest article tomorrow. I am considering how to incorporate, if at all, closers with extremely long leashes but subpar skills. And for Chris Perez lovers, he is very close to becoming a “hold” based on his much-improved K rate!

Pitcher CIA result Reason for Change, if any
Jim Johnson Lose
Alfredo Aceves Lose K/BB rate dipped below 2.5
Hector Santiago Hold
Addison Reed Hold
Chris Perez Lose
Jose Valverde Lose
Jon Broxton Lose
Scott Downs Lose
Ernesto Frieri Hold
Matt Capps Lose
David Robertson Hold
Brian Fuentes Lose
Brandon League Lose
Fernando Rodney Hold
Joe Nathan Hold
Casey Janssen Hold
JJ Putz Hold
Craig Kimbrel Hold
Rafael Dolis Lose
Sean Marshall Hold Lost job
Aroldis Chapman Hold
Rafael Betancourt Hold
Brett Myers Lose
Kenley Jansen Hold
Steve Cishek Lose K rate dips below 2.5
Ed Mujica Hold
John Axford Hold
Jon Rauch Lose
Jon Papelbon Hold
Joel Hanrahan Lose BB rate 6.75, 1.5 K/BB and BPV
Dale Thayer Hold
Santiago Casilla Hold K rate jumps over 7.0, BPV up over 80
Jason Motte Hold
Henry Rodriguez Lose

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