Blog
April 17, 2013 posted by Paul Greco

Buy Low / Cut Bait – Ike Davis

Buy Low / Cut Bait – Ike Davis
Print Friendly

Believe it or not, but 45 at–bats into the season is panic time for some owners. As silly as this is, it’s a great opportunity to grab some players at good prices that otherwise would not be available.

The epitome of a buy-low right now is Ike Davis. Davis is not only scuffling out of the gate, hitting 5-39 albeit with 6 walks, but he’s also sitting against lefties. Fantasy GMs have seen this before with Davis. He’s a streaky player that tends to go through prolonged slumps.

The valley fever that plagued him last year should be long over and done with and his current slump really isn’t different from a typical power-hitter cold spell. Davis had a .286 expected batting average in the second half of 2012 and improved his contact rate to 75%. He’s also walking at a 12% clip during his current slump which is a great sign.

There are things inherently wrong with BABIP. It’s a flawed stat that has become a huge crutch and a symbol of lazy analysis, but Ike Davis had a 23% line drive rate in the second half when he recorded that .286 xBA. Davis’s PX (or Linear Weighted Power), a metric used by Baseball HQ, was 176, and his expected linear weighted power or “xPX” was 184 in the second half.

Ike Davis has Jay Bruce upside and the best part is that fantasy GMs can trade for him right now for Chris Davis. Chris Davis + a decent middle of the road pitcher like Jonathan Niese, Anibal Sanchez, or maybe even a scuffling Doug Fister, could be pulled off in many non-industry leagues.

Ike Davis is definitely something worth investing in. The name of the game at this time of the year is cashing in on other owners worries, fears, and irrationalities.

 

Paul finished the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football season as the #1 Weekly Rankings & Projections winner of the 411Fantasy Expert Challenge. He also finished 2nd in the FantasyPros.com Expert Draft Accuracy Challenge in 2011. Top 10 Finisher in the FSWA Fantasy Football Draft Projections. Paul is also apart of baseballs elite as a member of Tout Wars. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulGreco
Share

You must be logged in to post a comment.