May 13, 2012 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Youth Movement

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Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland A's

Four hitters grace this week’s most added list and with his 509 career at bats Josh Reddick is the most seasoned of the bunch.  Even in shallower leagues owners are willing to embrace small sample sizes.  Bartolo Colon had a solid year in New York, and moving to Oakland kept many optimistic.  2012 started well but a rough May has owners jumping ship.




Josh Reddick:  Many of his numbers mirror those of 2011 but there is a notable exception.  His ISO is up nearly 75 points and he has more HR than in all of 2011.  His HR/FB is not outlandish at 16.7% and he is at the age where power increases happen.  Oakland’s park is not holding him back, he has a .290 ISO at home.  To torture Red Sox fans some more, his OPS is almost 100 points higher than Adrian Gonzalez’s.


Drop for him:  Jon Jay, Carlos Lee, Luke Scott

Don’t drop for him:  Shin-Soo Choo, Torii Hunter, Bryce Harper


Kyle Seager:  He is hitting .325 in May with three home runs and thirteen RBI.  High averages are nothing new to him.  He hit .345 in 2010 (High-A) and .333 in 2011 (Double-A and Triple-A).  His track record suggests 10/10 is his upside in HR and steals though.  A better walk rate than his current 2.6% would inspire some more confidence, and his minor league stats suggest improvement is possible.


Drop for him:  Daniel Murphy, Matt Carpenter, Marco Scutaro

Don’t drop him for:  Chipper Jones, Chris Johnson, Alcides Escobar


Andy Dirks:  He has a .471/.526/.765 line through the first ten games in May.  The hot stretch earned him the coveted #2 position in the Detroit order.  He is swinging wildly (52.8% swing%) and hitting nearly everything – 5.6% K%, 27.9% LD%.  That does not seem sustainable but he had a .351 minor league OBP, suggesting he could be a long-tern fit.


Drop for him:  Delmon Young, Dexter Fowler, Mitch Moreland

Don’t drop for him:  Jordan Schafer, Mike Trout, Jason Kubel


Allen Craig:  It is only a ten game sample size but he has five home runs, sixteen RBI, a .462 ISO, and a HR/FB ratio near 40%.  He is facing some uncertain playing time when Lance Berkman comes back, certainly Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are going nowhere.  On a related note, St. Louis has a 130 team wRC+.  Collectively their lineup is better than Billy Butler, even with a pitcher hitting.


Drop for him:  Colby Rasmus, Brennan Boesch, Alfonso Soriano

Don’t drop for him:  Logan Morrison, Lucas Duda, Denard Span




Bartolo Colon:  He allowed ten earned runs in two May starts.  His 5.04 K/9 is an issue for fantasy and for his real life prospects.  He can still succeed with truly elite control, otherwise he is in trouble.  There is not much hope for improvement, his fastball is down 1.7 mph this year.  His 3.7% swinging strike rate is the lowest among starting pitchers.


Drop him for:  Jason Vargas, James McDonald, Edinson Volquez

Don’t drop him for:  Jonathan Sanchez, Andy Pettitte, Barry Zito


J.D. Martinez:  He was given three games off this week after staggering to .045/.125/.045 in May.  His 2.37 GB/FB is discouraging for those hoping for power help.  His upside is low enough that standard mixed leaguers do not have to sweat dropping him.


Drop him for:  Gerardo Parra, Raul Ibanez, Yonder Alonso

Don’t drop him for:  Jeff Francoeur, Brandon Belt, Mike Carp


Mike Minor:  The number crunchers are waiting for a breakout based on his 3.42 K/BB.  So far they are rewarded with a 6.59 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.  His BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB suggest the results will get better.  There could be something going on that the numbers do not show, however, and changes could be necessary before he reaches his potential.  Mixed league players should make him demonstrate improvement before counting on him.


Drop him for:  Carlos Zambrano, Mark Buehrle, Jon Niese

Don’t drop him for:  Clay Buchholz, John Danks, Trevor Cahill


Francisco Cordero:  He is out of ninth inning duty after earning only two saves.  A 1.29 K/BB and 4.85 xFIP is not closer-worthy.  This reveals the perils of chasing saves without considering a pitcher’s skills.


Drop him for:  Ernesto Frieri, Matt Thornton, Brian Fuentes

Don’t drop him for:  Joel Peralta, Andrew Cashner, Mariano Rivera




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