July 16, 2013 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Trade Impact

Added and Dropped:  Trade Impact
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Trade deadline season is upon us and many fantasy owners are monitoring the news and fretting over the implications of impending transactions.  Meanwhile, an early June trade that passed with little fanfare included one of this week’s most added players.  An outfielder most project to be on the move is slumping and being dropped.




Juan Francisco:  He was pressed into action when Aramis Ramirez got hurt, but considering Milwaukee’s lack of production from their first basemen he could easily remain a starter.  He had a .231 ISO in June and is following it up with .212 in July.  His strikeout rate is also under 26% since June 1.  While his plate discipline is progressing, he is still a very aggressive swinger.  That can lead to some painful slumps.


Drop for him:  Todd Frazier, David Freese, Ryan Howard

Don’t drop for him:  Nick Swisher, James Loney, Chase Headley


Derek Jeter:  Competition is not stiff at shortstop and even a declining Captain can be fantasy relevant, assuming his quad strain mends quickly.  Relevant in a limited fashion, however.  The New York offense propelled his counting stats, but the Yankees are 20th in runs scored this year.  His ground ball rate is trending towards preposterous levels, to the point that any home runs are unexpected.  Leg injuries will certainly take away whatever speed he had left.


Drop for him:  Andrelton Simmons, Alcides Escobar, Brandon Crawford

Don’t drop for him:  Nick Franklin, Erick Aybar, Alexei Ramirez


Logan Morrison:  He ranked as one of the most promising hitting prospects entering 2010 but injuries plagued him in 2011 and 2012.  BABIPs of .265 and .248 did not do him any favors either.  He sports a .235 ISO with ten of his 24 hits going for extra bases.   LoMo combines power with a 0.61 career BB/K ratio.  Having outfield eligibility helps his cause, but those seeking home runs above all else should consider that Marlins Park is #29 for long balls in park factor rankings this year.


Drop for him:  Andre Ethier, Ichiro Suzuki, Marlon Byrd

Don’t drop for him:  Colby Rasmus, Nate McLouth, Jason Heyward


Ivan Nova:  He showed quality skills in 2012 but was undone by home runs and a high BABIP against.  He is even better this year and on a run of four straight quality starts since his recall.  His HR/FB is halved and his GB/FB has increased from 1.40 to 2.09.  He is no finesse pitcher either, with a 9.35 K/9 this season.  Unlike Phil Hughes, Nova can succeed in New York’s home park.


Drop for him:  Ian Kennedy, Tommy Milone, Jon Lester

Don’t drop for him:  Ricky Nolasco, Ervin Santana, Jeff Samardzija




Nate Schierholtz:  He was held out of action over the weekend and before that was playing like he needed rest.  Hitting .138/.265/.207 to start July put a damper on an impressive first half.  His .229 ISO is still far and away a career high and that is driven by a .311 rate at Wrigley Field.  A trade could make him far less productive.


Drop him for:  Matt Joyce, Marcell Ozuna, Carlos Quentin

Don’t drop him for:  Lorenzo Cain, Vernon Wells, Darin Ruf


Adam Lind:  He is hitting a measly .200/.217/.333 in July with a particularly heinous 0.08 BB/K.  Toronto features a top ten offense and there is room for further improvement with Jose Reyes back.  This gives Lind many opportunities to accumulate counting stats.  Remain cautiously optimistic, but if his plate discipline keeps eroding he can be dumped.


Drop him for:  Kendrys Morales, Adam LaRoche, Adam Dunn

Don’t drop him for:  Brandon Moss, Garrett Jones, Chris Johnson


J.J. Putz:  He failed to lock down the ninth inning upon his return, so the Diamondbacks feature the dreaded “closer by committee”.  Putz’ offending stats include a 5.00 BB/9 and 1.50 HR/9.  His 21.4% HR/FB seems sure to regress.  Batters are laying off more pitches outside the zone, but the other plate discipline metrics are steady enough to believe in a bounce back.  Drop him if roster space is tight, but look for good stats from him in the second half.


Drop him for:  Tom Wilhelmsen, Mark Melancon, Jim Henderson

Don’t drop him for:  Heath Bell, Andrew Bailey, Rex Brothers


Mark Reynolds:  He was benched three times in the last five games as Lonnie Chisenhall is gaining some momentum.  Reynolds’ .169 ISO is well below his .233 career mark, his 41.7% fly ball rate is a low as well.  He is only the 42nd rated corner infielder in fantasy.


Drop him for:  Logan Morrison, Chris Carter, Brett Lawrie

Don’t drop him for:  Mike Moustakas, Nolan Arenado, Lance Berkman



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