August 13, 2012 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: The Next Manny

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Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles

While he was brimming with potential the smart money had Manny Machado honing his craft in the minors all year.  Baltimore is fighting for a playoff spot and rolled the dice by promoting him last week.  So far he is 3.3 runs above average.  Rafael Furcal started the year well but has run cold since May,  Machado’s arrival allows owners to cast aside the veteran.




Manny Machado:  He announced his presence with a bang, hitting three home runs in four games.  He did not have huge surface stats in Double-A but improved both his BB/K and ISO from 2011 while advancing a level.  Especially in leagues that use a middle infielder there is not much on the waiver wire.  Nothing is assured with Machado but grabbing him is not a bad move.


Drop for him:  Stephen Drew, Mike Aviles, Rafael Furcal

Don’t drop for him:  Jhonny Peralta, Danny Espinosa, Erick Aybar


Chris Johnson:  Since coming to Arizona he is hitting .311 with five home runs and eighteen RBI.  When he is playing well he hits with a high BABIP, high line drive rate, has occasional power and a dangerously low BB/K.  He is very streaky so view him as a short-term acquisition.


Drop for him:  Michael Young, Will Middlebrooks, Chipper Jones

Don’t drop for him:  Mike Moustakas, Kevin Youkilis, Todd Frazier


Ryan Doumit:  So much for being a part time player.  He has 367 PA, and only five catchers have over 400.  Doumit’s numbers are very similar to last year, has the ninth best wRC+ among catchers, and has three home runs in August.  His production is sustainable as long as he is healthy.  Minnesota is managing him carefully, starting him in just 39 games behind the plate.


Drop for him:  Jarrod Saltalamacchia, A.J. Ellis, Mike Napoli

Don’t drop for him:  Matt Wieters, Carlos Santana, Salvador Perez


Ross Detwiler:  He was a Sunday starter so many of the adds were simply streaming.  4.2 IP, 4 ER was not what they were looking for.  He had a 2.99 ERA entering the game but indicators said his skill level was closer to a high 3.00s or low 4.00s mark.  He enjoyed a .264 BABIP against.  5.82 K/9 is a liability, he made some progress in swinging strike rate but it is still below average.


Drop for him:  Josh Beckett, Johan Santana, Ricky Romero

Don’t drop for him:  Mark Buehrle, Matt Harvey, Mike Minor


Rafael Furcal, SS, St. Louis Cardinals



Rafael Furcal:  St. Louis dropped him to eighth in the order, his offense has been woeful in June, July, and August.  He has a career low .075 ISO, that is the second lowest among qualified shortstops.  He is wearing down as the end of the season approaches and recently received an injection to relieve back stiffness.


Drop him for:  Zack Cozart, Ruben Tejada, Trevor Plaouffe

Don’t drop him for:  Pedro Ciriaco, Yunel Escobar, Maicer Izturis


Santiago Casilla:  He only converted four of his last nine save chances so San Francisco is going to a committee.  Blisters are also limiting him.  He has a 1.83 GB/FB but nearly 20% of the fly balls are landing over the fence.  Of the Giants’ five most frequently used relievers he has the highest ERA.


Drop him for:  Grant Balfour, Glen Perkins, Jim Henderson

Don’t drop him for:  Heath Bell, John Axford, Kyle Farnsworth


Pedro Alvarez:  He found his footing in the majors but is still inconsistent.  Currently the power is missing he has one extra base hit since July 22.  His walk and strikeout rates match last year’s but his fly ball rate increased from 25.3% to 36.3%.  A quarter of them soar over the wall.  His pitch values have improved against every off-speed offering, a further indication of improvement.


Drop him for:  David Freese, Chase Headley, Martin Prado

Don’t drop him for:  Eric Chavez, Ryan Roberts, Chris Davis


Edinson Volquez:  His last three starts have been disastrous:  10 IP, 15 H, 15 R, 11 BB, 11 K.  His ERA is still below his FIP and xFIP.  His 8.33 K/9 is good but not elite and he has the worst walk rate of any qualified starter with 8.00 K/9 or more.  Predictably he gets a boost in Petco, his FIP is 3.28 at home and 5.49 on the road.


Drop him for:  Franklin Morales, Alex Cobb, Derek Holland

Don’t drop him for:  Chris Tillman, Bud Norris, Ervin Santana






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