1)Â Â Â Count on rookie starting pitchers
2)Â Â Â Count on hitters with unsustainably high BABIPs and no power
Both faults are addressed in this weekâ€™s Added and Dropped.
Chris Archer:Â He allowed three runs in his last four starts, albeit with just a 16/7 K/BB ratio.Â Also, the opposition was less than intimidating (Houston twice, Minnesota, and Toronto).Â He has the raw stuff to succeed, but his command is lagging as his 1.64 K/BB demonstrates.Â His 2.76 ERA is based on a .234 BABIP against and every indicator pegs him with an ERA over 4.00.Â He could raise his skills, but more likely he will experience the typical rookie pitfalls.
Drop for him:Â Paul Maholm, Ian Kennedy, Wade Miley
Donâ€™t drop for him:Â Jorge De La Rosa, A.J. Griffin, Ryan Dempster
Eric Young Jr.:Â In 26 games as a Met he is hitting .298/.377/.386 with ten steals.Â He had good BB/K numbers in the minors so it was a surprise when his OBP plummeted in Colorado.Â Perhaps it was just a slump.Â He is a good speed option for those who just lost Ben Revere.
Drop for him:Â Rajai Davis, Leonys Martin, Melky Cabrera
Donâ€™t drop for him:Â Shane Victorino, Norichika Aoki, Michael Brantley
Jake Peavy:Â He made his first start in six weeks on Saturday, going six innings allowing two runs while striking out three.Â His fastball averaged a little below normal, but ranged as high as it has at any point this year, suggesting he is healthy.Â His K/BB has been near 4.00 since 2011, and those skills will play anywhere.
Drop for him:Â Tim Hudson, Jon Lester, Yovani Gallardo
Donâ€™t drop for him:Â Ervin Santana, Kyle Lohse, Jeff Samardzija
Carlos Quentin:Â He is the #27 outfielder in the last 30 days and was owned in under 20% of leagues until a recent surge.Â His .298 BABIP is well over his .257 career mark, but his 20.2% line drive rate is a new peak as well.Â His 13.2% infield hit rate helps too, but that is more likely to regress.Â San Diego has a legitimate offense, eighteenth in scoring over the balance of the year, and more starters are getting healthy.
Drop for him:Â Nick Swisher, Marlon Byrd, Michael Morse
Donâ€™t drop for him:Â Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, Hunter Pence
Jose Iglesias:Â His surprisingly good hitting is beginning to fade in July. His slashline is only .241/.300/.259.Â By month his line drive rates are 23.8%, 24.3%, and 15.2%.Â His infield hit rate is also decreasing, from 20% to 15.4% to 8.3%.Â He was never expected to be a fantasy asset, so now would be an opportune time to cash these chips in.
Drop him for:Â Alcides Escobar, Marco Scutaro, Yunel Escobar
Donâ€™t drop him for:Â Josh Rutledge, Adeiny Hechavarria, Pete Kozma
Nick Franklin:Â He rested his knee for two games before the break, but that does not seem to be an issue as he played this weekend.Â He is only hitting .214/.262/.411 in July with a 37.5% strikeout rate.Â He drastically improved his contact rate in Triple-A this year after a rough go of it in 2012.Â He could take a similar step forward in the second half, it is a stat to watch.
Drop him for:Â Erick Aybar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez
Donâ€™t drop him for:Â Andrelton Simmons, Zack Cozart, Derek Jeter
James Loney:Â He missed the first two games after the break but was back in the Tampa lineup Sunday.Â His BABIP is back up to .364 for July with a 34.1% line drive rate, but his ISO is under .100 since June 1.Â He was never going to maintain a .381 average like he had in mid May, but his current .314 could stand.
Drop him for:Â Adam LaRoche, Justin Morneau, Mitch Moreland
Donâ€™t drop him for:Â Adam Lind, Brandon Moss, Mark Reynolds
Jeremy Hefner:Â A string of eight straight starts allowing two ER or less abruptly stopped Friday.Â His FIP moved to 4.27, below league average. Â He is not recommended in mixed leagues because it is dangerous to rely on pitchers with a K/9 under 7.00.
Drop him for:Â Ivan Nova, Corey Kluber, Jacob Turner
Donâ€™t drop him for:Â Kyle Kendrick, Wily Peralta, Jeremy Guthrie