June 11, 2013 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Outfield Phenoms

Added and Dropped:  Outfield Phenoms
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Since 2007, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, Buster Posey, and Mike Trout have all swung fantasy leagues in favor of those bold enough to scoop them up off the waiver wire.  Diligent owners are looking out for this year’s edition and many are placing their bets on Yasiel Puig and Marcell Ozuna.  Vernon Wells reached near universal ownership with a scorching hot April but is cooling off and finding his level once again.




Yasiel Puig:  Don’t bother looking at your league’s list of available players. He is not there, nor should he be.  Don Mattingly stated that he would not be returning to the minors, a relief for owners of the #3 fantasy player over the last week.  He appears aggressive, but it is too early to draw conclusions from major league stats.  It is encouraging that his strikeout rate is under 20% at every professional stop.


Trade for him:  Nelson Cruz, Torii Hunter, Nick Markakis

Don’t trade for him:  Shin-Soo Choo, Alex Gordon, Jason Heyward


Marcell Ozuna:  Hitting Coach Tino Martinez praises Ozuna’s teachability and growth like he is one of the most intelligent players in the league.  There is some statistical support; his ISO was .132 in May and is up to .179 in June.  Those waiting for him to show power might be getting their wish.  It was over .200 in 2011 and 2012.  He is not as big a stolen base threat as Puig, but could manage ten the rest of the year.


Drop for him:  Shane Victorino, Colby Rasmus, Nick Swisher

Don’t drop for him:  Daniel Nava, Alfonso Soriano, Josh Hamilton


Ryan Doumit:  A spurt of four home runs in seven games is helping bring his numbers up to par after a slow start.  He started every game since May 25 and has twenty one games at catcher under his belt, preserving his eligibility another season.  His .252 BABIP should rise, as his career mark is .300.  His BB/K is up to 0.51 after dipping to 0.30 in 2012.


Drop for him:  J.P. Arencibia, Brian McCann, Jason Castro

Don’t drop for him:  Victor Martinez, Carlos Santana, Matt Wieters


Luke Gregerson:  He collected two saves since Huston Street hit the DL.  He is delivering excellent ratios but lacking opportunities.  Street could be activated this week, but Street is nobody’s definition of a durable player.  Gregerson carried a .167 BABIP against into Sunday’s action, so some hits will begin to fall (edit:  he gave up four hits while blowing Sunday’s save chance).  Still, a 53.8% ground ball rate means the hits are likely to be singles.  Over the course of his career he is 0.24 under his FIP and 0.49 under his xFIP.


Drop for him:  Francisco Rodriguez, Vinnie Pestano, Rex Brothers

Don’t drop for him:  Kenley Jansen, Kevin Gregg, Jim Henderson


Vernon Wells, OF, New York Yankees

Vernon Wells, OF, New York Yankees



Vernon Wells:  His monthly splits paint a disturbing picture.  BB%:  9.9%, 3.7%, 3.3%.  ISO:  .244, .144, .000.  wRC+:  146, 60, -44.  He remains a decent option against left-handed pitching, delivering a .337 OBP and 108 wRC+ against them.  If he must be rostered limit his exposure to righties.  Even the Yankees are doing this, as Lyle Overbay is playing some games in the outfield.  Wells could lose much of his playing time when Curtis Granderson finally returns.


Drop him for:  Josh Reddick, Chris Carter, Wil Myers

Don’t drop him for:  Dayan Viciedo, Cameron Maybin, Jason Kubel


Jerome Williams:  His run of six straight quality starts ended as he was pushed back into the bullpen.  He might receive a spot start on Wednesday, although it is a tough matchup at Baltimore.  His ERA is lower than it should be, as a starter he has a .252 BABIP against and a 80.2% strand rate.


Drop him for:  Zack Wheeler, Andrew Cashner, Ricky Nolasco

Don’t drop him for:  Jhoulys Chacin, Kevin Gausman, Jason Marquis


Lorenzo Cain:  He is having a solid year, hitting .286/.348/.408.  His wRC+ increased from 99 to 107 this season.  Not only is his power is not developing, but he is turning into a real worm killer with the league’s fifth highest GB/FB ratio.  He was likely a popular drop for Yasiel Puig or Marcell Ozuna in ten team leagues.  Those moves can be endorsed, but there is no burning need to cut him.


Drop him for:  Matt Joyce, Alejandro De Aza, Gerardo Parra

Don’t drop him for:  Melky Cabrera, Michael Brantley, B.J. Upton


Yovani Gallardo:  He was never the most consistent pitcher, but made enough dominant outings to push him into the upper tiers.  Those are missing this year, his high Game Score is 68 and he eclipsed 60 in only one other start.  He has an uninspiring 2.22 K/BB.  His line drive rate and HR/FB are increasing, indicating that batters are making solid contact.  His velocity is down on all his pitches and his contact rate is over 80% for the first time since 2008.  His 6.7% swinging strike rate equals Eric Stults’ and ties him for 90th out of 102 qualified starters.  Bench him in leagues where the free agent pickings are especially slim.


Drop him for:  Jose Fernandez, Jorge De La Rosa, John Lackey

Don’t drop him for:  Wade Miley, Ian Kennedy, Dan Haren


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