September 2, 2012 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Instant Gratification is a Dangerous Thing

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Bronson Arroyo, SP, Cincinnati Reds

Most thought Baltimore promoted Manny Machado before he was ready, but understood because a playoff spot was within reach.  Three quick home runs and his ownership shot through the roof even in shallow leagues.  It has been slow going since then and a month later fantasy owners are finally reconsidering.


Bronson Arroyo:  His numbers bounced back this year, although his 0.18 improvement in xFIP is far less than his 1.23 swing in ERA.  There are two reasons behind a sudden surge in adds:  he started Sunday against the horrid Astros and he has a career 3.55 ERA and .676 winning percentage in September.  Streamers got 6 IP, 1 ER out of him.  Play the matchups here and do not assume his monthly splits are predictive.

Drop for him:  Justin Masterson, Ricky Romero, Jarrod Parker

Don’t drop for him:  Wei-Yin Chen, Hisashi Iwakuma, Homer Bailey

Pedro Ciriaco:  Here is proof that not everyone on the Red Sox is having a miserable year.  He is batting .327 with ten steals and is eligible at 2B, SS, and 3B.  His BABIP is .391.  These are his walk rates while playing at Triple-A or the majors:  2.7%, 1.6%, 1.7%, 2.1%, 1.8%.  That is not a recipe for long-term success.

Drop for him:  Dustin Ackley, Rafael Furcal, Josh Rutledge

Don’t drop for him:  Kelly Johnson, Mike Aviles, Trevor Plouffe

Jonathan Lucroy:  Many forgot about him as he spent two months away from action with a broken hand.  He made a big splash Friday with seven RBI.  Both his ISO and BABIP far exceed previous highs so maintaining current production levels is a long shot.  He gets one game off every five as Martin Maldonado is catching every Yovani Gallardo start.

Drop for him:  Jesus Montero, Alex Avila, Mike Napoli

Don’t drop for him:  Ryan Doumit, Salvador Perez, Brian McCann

Andrew Bailey:  He did not take the closer’s job so much as Alfredo Aceves lost it in spectacular fashion.  In only 5.2 innings there is little to quibble about.  His fastball velocity is consistent and his swinging strike rate is 10.0%.  Boston may not generate that many save chances for him.

Drop for him:  Frank Francisco, Alfredo Aceves, Steve Cishek

Don’t drop for him:  Sergio Romo, Huston Street, Grant Balfour

Manny Machado, SS/3B, Baltimore Orioles


Manny Machado:  Eighteen games ago he hit his third home run.  Since then he scored four runs and drove in four.  He is the #23 fantasy shortstop over the last 30 days.  He is also taking plate discipline lessons from Pedro Ciriaco, his walk rate is a measly 2.5% with a 0.12 BB/K.  He had a 10.3% walk rate in the minors so this dip is likely just part of an adjustment phase.

Drop him for:  Zack Cozart, Joaquin Arias, Yunel Escobar

Don’t drop him for:  Stephen Drew, Dee Gordon, Alexi Amarista

Kenley Jansen:  He has not pitched since a four run blowup on August 27, and has an exam scheduled Tuesday to determine his availability going forward.  He is the #6 relief pitcher in fantasy and is worth hanging onto even if he is clogging rosters.  His 2.54 ERA is not out of line with the indicators and his 13.66 K/9 is spectacular for fantasy purposes.

Drop him for (if shut down):  Brandon League, Glen Perkins, Javier Lopez, Luke Gergerson, Wilton Lopez, Vinnie Pestano

Lance Lynn:  He moved out of the rotation recently, and after Sunday’s loss will not be seeing many high leverege situations.  Both his FIP and xFIP were over 4.50 in August.  Like many hurlers he sees a slight velocity jump in relief.  He should provide good strikeout numbers.

Drop him for:  Ryan Cook, David Robertson, Marco Estrada

Don’t drop him for:  Heath Bell, Brett Myers, Scott Downs

Jason Vargas:  He was unable to complete five innings in either of his last two starts, giving up fifteen hits and eleven runs.  Not surprisingly they were both on the road.  Here is how it breaks down:  in Seattle he has a 2.63 ERA, 3.68 xFIP, and 3.24 K/BB.  Away from home he has a 4.84 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, and 2.03 K/BB.  Just use him appropriately, such as Monday when the reeling Red Sox visit Safeco.

Drop him for:  Jaime Garcia, Matt Harvey, Jeff Samardzija

Don’t drop him for:  Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Derek Holland


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