April 23, 2013 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Hair Triggers

Added and Dropped:  Hair Triggers
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Many fantasy writers preach patience in April, but a scan of the week’s popular adds shows that owners are disregarding that advice.  Some streaky players that were not considered close to draft-worthy are suddenly hot commodities.  Meanwhile, a third baseman who posted a 1.147 OPS in Spring Training is not performing well in the games that count and is being heavily dropped.




Brandon Crawford:  Three weeks into the season his ISO is .213.  He has never held it over .140 for any significant period of time.  While his plate discipline appears to be improving, dropping anyone talented for him would be a massive overreaction.


Drop for him:  Eduardo Nunez, Luis Cruz, Cliff Pennington

Don’t drop for him:  Zack Cozart, Danny Espinosa, Didi Gregorious


Chris Johnson:  He is batting over .400 and that will earn him the lion’s share of playing time at third base.  He is streaky by nature and was a popular fantasy pickup when he hit .355/.400/.565 last September.  His strikeout rate is down, but  his contact rate has seen a far smaller decrease.  The strikeouts will return to his career average levels eventually.


Drop for him:  Juan Francisco, Daniel Descalso, Matt Dominguez

Don’t drop for him:  Jedd Gyorko, Kyle Seager, Pedro Alvarez


Tony Cingrani:  He labored through five innings in his debut but only allowed a run and struck out eight.  He has an advantageous match-up next as he faces the Cubs.  He is worth a look if he can maintain his high strikeout rates he will be valuable.


Drop for him:  Jarrod Parker, Bronson Arroyo, Edwin Jackson

Don’t drop for him:  Marco Estrada, Brandon Morrow, Ian Kennedy


Starling Marte:  Marte is hitting .323, but his average is bolstered by a .455 BABIP.  His BB/K ratio was 0.16 last year and is 0.15 this season.  That all but guarantees a slump is coming.  He possesses 25 – 30 SB upside, but that is his only “plus” fantasy category.


Drop for him:  Emilio Bonifacio, Cameron Maybin, Michael Brantley

Don’t drop for him:  Gerardo Parra, Denard Span, Lorenzo Cain



Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas CIty Royals

Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas CIty Royals



Mike Moustakas:  As hot as he was in Spring Training, he is ice cold now at .158/.226/.193.  The good news is his BABIP is .184 and his BB/K ratio has increased significantly, so some poor luck is in play.  He is hitting fly balls 63.3% of the time but many of them are popups and none have cleared the fence yet.


Drop him for:  David Freese, Manny Machado, Matt Carpenter

Don’t drop him for:  Chris Johnson, Will Middlebrooks, Trevor Plouffe


Adam Dunn:  This is the recipe for an Adam Dunn disaster:  .103 BABIP, three walks all year and a .145 ISO.  He is swinging more often, although the extra hacks are predominantly at strikes.  After submitting one of the worst seasons of all time in 2011 he does not get the slack that most veterans would.


Drop him for:  Alfonso Soriano, Vernon Wells, Garrett Jones

Don’t drop him for:  Colby Rasmus, Domonic Brown, Franklin Gutierrez


Ichiro Suzuki:  Take away 90 points of BABIP from any hitter lacking pop and he will struggle.  That is the difference between Ichiro in 2012 and 2013.  Of course, he was not a particularly useful fantasy player last year.  He has not stolen a base yet, but trying to scout his speed from other numbers (Spd score, infield hit %, defensive ratings) is not possible yet.


Drop him for:  Jon Jay, Justin Ruggiano, Justin Maxwell

Don’t drop him for:  Rajai Davis, Drew Stubbs, Chris Denorfia


Dan Haren:  He has yet to record a quality start and gave up five home runs in 13.1 IP.  Owners speculated that a healthy Haren would gain some velocity back.  All his pitches are up a tick, but so are contact rates against him.  He is not trustworthy currently and the depth of the particular league dictates whether the right move is to bench or cut him.


Drop him for:  Wandy Rodriguez, Patrick Corbin, Jose Quintana

Don’t drop him for:  Tommy Hanson, Brandon McCarthy, Phil Hughes



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