MLB
May 7, 2013 posted by Chuck Anderson

Added and Dropped: Breakouts or Comebacks?

Added and Dropped:  Breakouts or Comebacks?
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Fantasy owners can speculate on two types of players.  The first type seeks to establish a higher skill level than they have previously shown.  The second type attempts to return to a playing level they had since lost.  Two of each are in this week’s most added section.  Washington is a strong second in the NL East but two Nationals are among the most dropped.

 

Added

 

Nate McLouth:  Four years have passed since his 26/23 season but he is taking another crack at some All-Star numbers.  He leads off for a top five offense and is one of the league’s leading run scorers.  He has nine steals already, setting a pace that would easily reach a career high.

 

Drop for him:  Shane Victorino, Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus

Don’t drop for him:  Lorenzo Cain, Norichika Aoki, Gerardo Parra

 

Michael Saunders:  He barely missed a 20/20 season last year but a .306 OBP curtailed his value.  He is up to .351 in limited action this year and scored fourteen runs in as many games.  Small sample size applies but his fly ball rate is increasing.  Even when his HR/FB normalizes he could hit for more power.  Safeco Field’s reduced dimensions could aid him greatly.

 

Drop for him:  Ben Revere, Jason Kubel, Daniel Nava

Don’t drop for him:  Allen Craig, Jay Bruce, Alex Rios

 

Kevin Gregg:  He converted all four save opportunities so far and is unscored upon in 6.1 innings.  There is little to indicate he has changed from his Baltimore days and that would mean he is headed for a high-4.00s ERA.  He is similar to Jose Valverde and only those with a desperate need for saves should attempt to deal with him.

 

Drop for him:  Steve Cishek, Jose Veras, John Axford

Don’t drop for him:  Kenley Jansen, Joel Hanrahan, Bobby Parnell

 

Nolan Arenado:  He is everything Colorado hoped for in his first week. He  provided power, average, and run production.  His is offering at 55.6% of pitches, indicating weak plate discipline.  Then again, pitchers will often challenge young hitters with more strikes than normal.  Consider Will Middlebrooks a decent comparison. Arenado could be the “good” Middlebrooks of 2012 or the become 2013’s slumping version.

 

Drop for him:  Pedro Alvarez, Jedd Gyorko, Trevor Plouffe

Don’t drop for him:  Matt Carpenter, Martin Prado, Ryan Zimmerman

 

 

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals

Adam LaRoche, 1B, Washington Nationals

Dropped

 

Adam LaRoche:  He is widening his already divergent first and second half splits with a .168/.273/.295 line so far.  His contact rate on strikes is a career low 82.0%.  Hang on for now, but ideally find another option to start on most days.

 

Drop him for:  Adam Dunn, Eric Hosmer, Paul Konerko

Don’t drop him for:  Yonder Alonso, Brandon Belt, Justin Morneau

 

Ross Detwiler:  He was touched for three ER in five innings pitched in each of his last two starts.  He has yet to post a K/9 over 6.00 in the majors.  Despite the strong results he is a pitcher that does not maintain enough value to be consistently owned in a mixed league.  He is the perfect example of a pitcher below Matthew Berry’s “Wandy Line”.

 

Drop him for:  Jose Quintana, Justin Grimm, Kevin Slowey

Don’t drop him for:  C.J. Wilson, Brandon Morrow, Dan Haren

 

Josh Reddick:  He is hitting .148/.267/.250 with a .182 BABIP, but it is not all bad luck.  His line drive rate is 13.4%, down from 21.2%.  His popup rate is up 1.7% and his HR/FB decreased from 14.0% to 3.2%.  Taken together, the batted ball data shows an alarming decline in quality of contact.  He has five steals without being caught and appears poised to easily pass 2012’s eleven stolen bases.  Hold on if possible. It is still too early to write off the year as lost.

 

Drop him for:  Michael Saunders, Nick Swisher, Jayson Werth

Don’t drop him for:  Matt Joyce, Ichiro Suzuki, Alfonso Soriano

 

David Freese:  He came off the DL to an extremely slow .215/.292/.262 start.  His BABIP is not low at .292, but it had been over .350 every year in the majors.  With a 2.01 GB/FB rate even a slight slippage in power could really hurt him.  Proceed very carefully and explore a trade if you can get full value in return.

 

Drop him for:  Kyle Seager, Josh Donaldson, Brett Lawrie

Don’t drop him for:  Chris Johnson, Michael Young, Mike Moustakas

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