MLB
January 3, 2014 posted by Paul Greco

A Look At 2013 Second Half BABIP

A Look At 2013 Second Half BABIP
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There are many different places that explain BABIP, but no one does it better than the great folks over at Fangraph.com. No reason to butcher this, so here is how they explain it…

Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits. While typically around 30% of all balls in play fall for hits, there are three main variables that can affect BABIP rates for individual players:

 

a) Defense - Say a player cracks a hard line drive down the third base line. If an elite fielder is playing at third, they may make a play on it and throw the runner out. However, if there’s a dud over there with limited range, the ball could just as easily fly by for a hit. Players have no control over the defenses they’re facing, and they can only direct their hits to a limited extent. Sometimes a batter can be making good contact, but is simply hitting balls right at fielders. Also, a batter that consistently hits into a shift may have a lower BABIP than a typical player.

 

b) Luck - Sometimes, even against a great defense, bloop hits can fall in. A batter may turn a nasty pitch into a dribbler that just sneaks past the first baseman, or they may blast a shot in the gap that a fielder makes a diving catch on. Hits can fall in despite the best pitches and the best defenses – that’s just the game.

 

c) Changes in Talent Level - Over the course of a season, players can go through periods of adjustment. Maybe pitchers adjust to a weakness that a batter has, and the batter starts making less solid contact and getting fewer hits. Maybe a batter is simply on fire for a season, playing at a very high talent level and roping hard line drives all over the field. The harder a ball is hit, the more likely it is to fall in for a hit.

 

Due to this flakiness, BABIP can dramatically affect a hitter’s batting average. If a large number of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, that can boost their batting average quite high. Similarly, if a large number of balls in play get caught, it can reduce a player’s total offensive value.

 

If a player has a very high or very low BABIP, it means that whatever the reason for the spike (whether it’s defense, luck, or slight skill), that player will regress back to their career BABIP rate. BABIP rates are flaky and prone to vary wildly from year to year, so we should always take any extreme BABIP rates with a grain of salt.

 

The average BABIP for hitters is around .290 to .310.  If you see any player that deviates from this average to an extreme, they’re likely due for regression.

 

Now that you completely understand how BABIP works, here is a look at the TOP 100 players with the highest BABIP the second half of the 2013 season. The players listed each have at least 200 plate appearances.

NameTeamPAHRRRBISBBB%K%BABIPAVGOBPSLGWAR
Mike TroutAngels2901244381221.7%22.8%.410.324.479.5434.6
Michael CuddyerRockies2234302948.1%18.8%.403.333.386.4750.6
Brandon BeltGiants2477342918.5%19.8%.392.326.390.5252.4
Matt HollidayCardinals24993947312.9%14.1%.381.348.442.5522.9
Andrew McCutchenPirates286114135714.3%16.1%.380.339.441.5614.2
Christian YelichMarlins273434161011.4%24.2%.380.288.370.3961.4
Jon JayCardinals2602292977.7%17.7%.379.311.379.4121.5
Marlon Byrd- - -2749363715.1%21.5%.378.314.358.5222.1
Junior LakeCubs2546261645.1%26.8%.377.284.332.4281.2
Will VenablePadres252113421136.0%22.6%.375.315.357.5492.4
Charlie BlackmonRockies2155311842.8%18.1%.373.317.346.4780.8
Chris JohnsonBraves2586243704.7%19.8%.372.311.345.4431.1
Victor MartinezTigers2766293308.0%6.5%.371.361.413.5001.5
Freddie FreemanBraves277144048110.5%18.4%.369.335.408.5442.5
Matt CarpenterCardinals30925433210.7%15.2%.368.313.390.4592.9
Eric HosmerRoyals3068403948.5%16.0%.368.323.379.4732.0
Chase HeadleyPadres24562619211.0%24.5%.365.280.371.4582.0
Jayson WerthNationals273154649713.2%16.5%.364.339.432.6003.3
Jonathan VillarAstros24112681810.0%29.5%.362.243.321.319-0.2
Robinson CanoYankees2726284216.3%12.1%.362.331.379.4942.3
Wil MyersRays261103538210.3%23.8%.360.294.368.5062.1
Josh HamiltonAngels2617254018.0%24.1%.359.287.341.4601.3
Dustin AckleyMariners20831920110.1%16.3%.358.304.374.4351.3
Brett GardnerYankees21312920118.9%21.6%.355.274.354.4031.2
Elvis AndrusRangers28644136237.3%13.3%.352.313.369.4052.3
Hunter PenceGiants287133851810.1%17.1%.345.314.387.5253.1
Ian DesmondNationals26653431116.8%21.4%.344.279.335.4061.7
Billy ButlerRoyals2937323309.9%14.0%.344.310.379.4250.8
Brandon BarnesAstros2114222222.8%29.9%.344.249.287.3600.5
Stephen DrewRed Sox23983036410.9%23.8%.340.276.356.4812.1
Chris DenorfiaPadres2093291848.6%16.7%.340.291.349.3971.6
Nolan ArenadoRockies2283242513.9%14.9%.339.298.323.4191.5
Daniel MurphyMets29774039135.1%13.8%.338.307.340.4461.9
Mark EllisDodgers2232232215.8%15.7%.337.287.341.3711.1
Mike NapoliRed Sox211123234016.6%30.3%.337.259.389.5462.1
Adrian BeltreRangers2919343719.6%12.4%.336.315.388.4591.9
Bryce HarperNationals2557332959.8%19.6%.335.283.366.4531.7
Carl CrawfordDodgers2401261865.0%13.3%.335.292.326.3941.4
Joey VottoReds29793531321.5%18.5%.333.284.438.4672.4
DJ LeMahieuRockies2351241672.6%14.0%.333.291.306.3720.4
Justin UptonBraves257113525210.1%23.7%.331.275.354.4671.4
Jacoby EllsburyRed Sox21763320166.0%18.9%.331.285.330.4351.8
Shin-Soo ChooReds27784123917.3%18.1%.329.281.420.4521.9
Juan UribeDodgers2127222234.2%19.3%.329.286.319.4622.6
Carlos GomezBrewers228102928199.2%27.2%.328.265.339.4602.7
Paul GoldschmidtDiamondbacks304154348616.4%20.7%.328.288.408.5442.5
Aaron HillDiamondbacks2397272607.9%15.1%.328.295.360.4521.2
Denard SpanNationals27243422104.8%10.7%.327.302.337.4131.9
Troy TulowitzkiRockies24793130113.0%17.8%.327.290.381.4672.1
J.B. ShuckAngels2602371955.4%13.5%.327.292.324.3580.2
Adrian GonzalezDodgers2648324116.8%18.2%.326.288.333.4360.9
Martin PradoDiamondbacks2786334827.6%6.1%.326.324.374.4902.2
Jason KipnisIndians28443327910.9%21.1%.326.261.343.3711.0
David OrtizRed Sox269113538112.6%16.7%.326.299.387.5111.1
Pablo SandovalGiants25952237010.4%13.1%.325.294.371.4431.5
Josh DonaldsonAthletics27783932313.0%16.2%.324.286.391.4663.1
Zack CozartReds2385283005.0%17.6%.324.282.315.4001.2
Prince FielderTigers2909343708.6%14.8%.324.295.362.4561.0
Yasiel PuigDodgers271113823610.7%22.5%.323.273.373.4811.8
Chase UtleyPhillies2557323919.0%14.1%.323.296.365.4561.8
Austin JacksonTigers3127432626.7%21.5%.321.264.319.4301.4
Shane VictorinoRed Sox263114337103.8%15.6%.320.297.364.5003.4
Alex Rios- - -27873741234.3%15.1%.319.288.320.4361.5
Jose AltuveAstros28422724144.6%12.0%.319.287.317.3770.6
Giancarlo StantonMarlins280143935015.7%28.9%.317.249.371.4981.5
Torii HunterTigers26710344013.4%18.7%.316.288.308.4760.8
Ben ZobristRays2946302359.9%10.9%.316.294.365.4272.6
Miguel CabreraTigers224143042013.4%13.4%.315.316.411.5651.8
Michael BrantleyIndians2423202575.8%10.3%.315.291.331.4080.7
Eduardo NunezYankees2113262085.2%12.3%.314.284.321.426-0.4
Trevor PlouffeTwins2584141816.6%24.4%.312.243.295.339-0.4
Adam DunnWhite Sox247101926012.1%32.8%.312.228.324.395-0.4
Ed LucasMarlins2363232005.1%22.0%.311.249.289.3480.2
Kole CalhounAngels2228293229.5%18.5%.311.282.347.4621.1
Chris DavisOrioles280163345412.1%31.8%.309.245.339.5151.6
James LoneyRays2424153206.6%14.0%.309.276.322.3780.4
Alejandro De AzaWhite Sox28453018107.0%20.1%.308.254.317.3590.5
Jonathan LucroyBrewers27353230710.6%11.7%.307.286.363.4331.9
Juan LagaresMets2743242365.8%21.2%.307.247.295.3592.2
Jose ReyesBlue Jays2946392578.8%11.6%.307.285.347.4121.2
Kendrys MoralesMariners2779222608.7%17.3%.306.274.336.4290.3
Jed LowrieAthletics2798393805.0%14.0%.306.284.318.4751.4
Yoenis CespedesAthletics23311283724.3%24.5%.305.261.296.4731.3
Curtis GrandersonYankees21462614711.7%29.4%.305.226.316.4091.2
Ryan ZimmermanNationals29115432817.9%19.2%.305.280.337.4781.4
Salvador PerezRoyals2279234104.4%11.0%.304.303.335.4832.0
Brett LawrieBlue Jays2816303277.5%11.0%.303.283.346.4171.4
David FreeseCardinals2264223008.8%20.4%.302.250.336.3780.1
Evan LongoriaRays29414373608.8%24.8%.302.257.327.4872.6
Darin RufPhillies259123027010.8%29.7%.301.238.336.435-0.2
David DeJesus- - -22222017210.8%19.8%.301.241.336.3560.5
Chris CarterAstros251112035211.6%35.5%.300.216.311.4270.0
Adam EatonDiamondbacks2593382055.8%16.2%.300.256.316.363-0.4
Yunel EscobarRays23322317112.9%12.0%.298.264.362.3651.8
Dustin PedroiaRed Sox2923342847.5%8.9%.297.279.336.3851.5
Adam JonesOrioles27614334154.3%21.7%.296.267.308.4811.4
Leonys MartinRangers25532933174.3%20.8%.295.238.289.3480.8
Carlos BeltranCardinals2505283108.0%12.0%.294.277.329.4290.2
Jay BruceReds285113643512.3%25.6%.293.239.335.4331.4
Starlin CastroCubs2984151525.0%19.1%.292.244.286.333-0.2

Paul finished the 2011-2012 Fantasy Football season as the #1 Weekly Rankings & Projections winner of the 411Fantasy Expert Challenge. He also finished 2nd in the FantasyPros.com Expert Draft Accuracy Challenge in 2011. Top 10 Finisher in the FSWA Fantasy Football Draft Projections. Paul is also apart of baseballs elite as a member of Tout Wars. You can follow me on Twitter @PaulGreco
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