April 21, 2014 posted by Chuck Anderson

2014 Fantasy Baseball Weekend Wrap

2014 Fantasy Baseball Weekend Wrap
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Albert Pujols’ .307 ISO suggests his power is back but his batted ball profile does not paint as rosy a picture.  He is only hitting line drives at 15.6%, has a career high ground ball rate, and a 20% popup rate.  Similarly, while his strikeout rate is down, his swstr% is up.  Reserve judgment until more of the numbers reconcile with each other.

Prince Fielder’s ISO and HR/FB ratio are both dropping for the third consecutive year.  Owners betting on the Ballpark at Arlington having a positive impact will be disheartened to find out he has played twice as many home games as road games.

Homer Bailey was better on Sunday, throwing six shutout innings.  Buy low if possible, his ERA will end up much closer to his 3.15 xFIP than his current 5.75 mark.

Henderson Alvarez was dominant in a complete game shutout of Seattle Saturday.  He owns a 2.66 ERA and has no sabermetric red flags but loses value due to a 4.53 career K/9.  This year there are no meaningful changes in his pitch speed or mix although he is pounding the strike zone a little more.  He has little mixed league worth.

Michael Brantley hit home run #3 Sunday.  His HR/FB ratio is out of whack with his career level, but he becomes far more interesting if he can pop 20 out of the yard.

Before getting too wrapped up in Mark Buehrle and his 0.64 ERA consider he has yet to allow a home run and has stranded 92.9% of runners.  Fantasy aside, for a pitcher in the top 20 of fWAR since 1990 he does not get enough credit.

John Axford is tied for the AL lead in saves but owns a 8.10 BB/9 and a 0.40 GB/FB ratio.  An implosion is looming, CIA agrees.

Carlos Martinez gave up runs for the third time in four appearances Sunday.  He is not unseating Rosenthal nor is he moving into the starting rotation anytime soon.  A 3.76 xFIP and 6.00 K/9 are not the numbers of an elite relief pitcher so most mixed league players should cut him.  Check out Hector Rondon or Dellin Betances as replacements.


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