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June 23, 2014 posted by Chuck Anderson

2014 Fantasy Baseball Weekend Wrap: Assessing VMart

2014 Fantasy Baseball Weekend Wrap:  Assessing VMart
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Will Victor Martinez ever slow down?  At an even .300, his BABIP is at its lowest mark since 2004.  His low strikeout rate is supported by an elite swinging strike percentage.  He is 44th in home run and fly ball distance, which seems low for a player with the seventh highest ISO.  Checking the top six, Jose Abreu, Mike Stanton, and Nelson Cruz all have HR/FB distances in the top ten.  Meanwhile, Edwin Encarnacion has the 49th longest distance, Troy Tulowitzki the 27th, and Mike Trout the 52nd.  While Martinez’ power is likely to decrease it is not certain to plummet.  Can he remain a top five first baseman?  Why not?

 

Devin Mesoraco leads catchers with a 173 wRC+.  That is also ahead of pseudo-catchers Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, and Joe Mauer.  His 27.9% HR/FB will not hold up, but ZiPS still projects him at 117 wRC+ from this day forward.

 

Speaking of catchers, Wilin Rosario missed some time, which set back his counting stats.  His rate stats, aside from a BABIP drop, are consistent.  His batted ball mix is not ideal, but his .233/.270/.415 slash line will improve.

 

Jake Odorizzi’s K/BB has improved each month, from 1.83 to 3.15 to 5.60.  He is also third among starters in K/9.  With a 4.29 ERA he may still be available in some mixed leagues.

 

San Francisco called up Joe Panik before Sunday’s game.  The second baseman hit .321/.382/.447 in Triple-A but totaled only 5 HR and 3 SB.  He is not an exciting fantasy asset unless his BABIP is off the charts.  For NL-only players it is news any time an above average offensive team gets a new starter.

 

Three pitchers have a K/9 under 6.00 and a strand rate over 80%:  Alfredo Simon, Chris Young, and Mark Buehrle.  Sell on any of them.  The same goes for Jason Vargas at 6.06 K/9 and 80.4% LOB%.

 

Pittsburgh’s Brandon Cumpton has two straight quality starts, but they came with a K/BB barely over 2.00 and a HR/FB ratio at 2.6%. Fantasy GMs should stay away.

 

Aramis Ramirez has a 191 wRC+ in June along with five of his ten home runs.  Owners should be nervous that a .408 BABIP is driving the improvement and his BB/K is only 0.08 in the month.  Offer him up in some trades.

 

Jared Burton earned a save for Minnesota Sunday.  Glen Perkins had pitched in three straight, throwing 20+ pitches in each game.  Burton is less reliable than in years past, posting a measly 1.40 K/BB.  No one in the Twins’ pen comes close to Perkins’ skill set.

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