Here we go with the HVaC top-425 players at the plate for 2014. If you need a primer on how the HVaC works, check that out here.
And here is the Top 425 - Fantasy Ranking 2014_zips_flat
Some things to note:
- All projections are done using ZiPS numbers downloaded from Fangraphs.com. Great series of stuff there and want to thank the guys for allowing us to leverage the data in this fashion.
- Batting average data was married up against RotoChamp projections (available online) and leveraged based on plate appearances, walk rate, and total hits from ZiPS.
- Scores are based off a 12-team mixed league and assume that you are drafting only one catcher. For two-catcher leagues, you could safely drop scores by about a point to account for the scarcity adjustment factor.
- Each player you draft should have a definitive focus in your weekly lineup. Based on averages by top-12 players in each position, emphasis was placed on the following in order:
- Catcher: RBI, HR, R, AVG, SB
- First Base: HR, RBI, R, AVG, SB
- Second Base: RBI, SB, AVG, R, HR
- Third Base: HR, RBI, AVG, R, SB
- Shortstop: SB, R, AVG, RBI, HR
- Outfield: HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG
- Greatest premium was placed on outfielders given the need to draft four to five in most leagues. Lowest premium placed on Catchers based on value-add and depth.
- As with everything, this is another tool in your bag. Leverage this as another piece of information that handles data independently of names. While we can quibble over numbers, there is consistency in the methodology. Add your own spin to it and let it help you be successful in your head to head leagues.
- If you have questions, find me on Twitter @CWHager. Comments, questions, feedback, criticism, and general banter on 80’s hair metal are welcome.
- It was no surprise to see Mike Trout come out on top of these rankings. The surprise to me was Ryan Braun. While my own expectations are slightly lower than this, the numbers in ZiPS dictate a strong performance with or without the PED’s.
- Ian Desmond’s balance narrowly edged him out over Hanley Ramirez for top shortstop. The guy in the third spot here is the wildcard. Jean Segura with 70 runs and 35 steals provides the type of value needed at this spot even if the power numbers do not scream at you. The rankings here bury guys like Troy Tulowitzki and J.J. Hardy because they do not provide the needed categories.
- Brian Dozier is the name to watch at Second Base. He is just outside the top-12 but could easily finish the season there. Jason Kipnis grades out at number three behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano.
- I simply love the depth at catcher this year. The top-10 is a perfect view as to how well you can do without having to reach early or jump in on the inevitable run on the position that will take place. When you have guys like Evan Gattis available later as well as Miguel Montero, there is plenty to be had. Looking for Joe Mauer? Number 17 at the position.
- More depth at Third Base? Got that right there is. Power is plentiful here to the point that Evan Longoria comes in at number seven. The numbers love Josh Donaldson and Kyle Seager this year so keep them in mind as well as Pedro Alvarez. Missing out on the top-three will not harm your for certain.
- As I expected, Yasiel Puig does not grade out in the first two rounds of my draft board using this scoring. That likely means I will not own him. At number 28 overall, not reaching too early to grab him is a good idea.
- The other oddball one is Edwin Encarnacion. The numbers indicate that he should be a top-10 selection but there is always some risk in this one. Given the depth at Third Base, the draft position seems a bit lofty. As with other players on this list, be sure to add your own judgment and league tendencies as you begin ranking and drafting.
Plenty more detail inside the spreadsheet. Enjoy and Good Drafting!