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March 28, 2013 posted by Dan Stack

2013 Fantasy Baseball: Preseason Busts (last-minute edition)

2013 Fantasy Baseball: Preseason Busts (last-minute edition)
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As Spring Training comes to an end draft season is also winding down.

Just like every other Draft Day, professional or fantasy, GMs have to study and prepare.  Avoiding busts is something fantasy GMs always want to be aware of.

It happens to the best of us. No one is immune from drafting busts; it’s an occupational hazard when it comes to fantasy sports.

Here are a couple of potential busts fantasy GMs may want to avoid in the early rounds of drafts.

Melky Cabrera: Toronto Blue Jays

Putting aside his 50-game suspension for using PEDs, expecting Cabrera to live up to his 2012 standards is still a far-fetched idea. He’s completed the terms of his suspension, but it’s hard to imagine Melky living up to the numbers he posted while on PEDs.

He has all the makings for a regression when Cabrera’s BABIP is taken into consideration. Cabrera’s BABIP last year was 70 points higher than his career average. Sure, Cabrera will benefit from batting in a loaded lineup in Toronto, but between his past BABIP history and the question regarding how much PEDs really helped him last year, Cabrera should not come close to the gaudy numbers he posted in 2012.

Perhaps no other player in the league has as many question marks surrounding his value as does Cabrera.

Paul Konerko: Chicago White Sox

At 37 Konerko is no spring chicken.

Konerko should still make for a suitable fantasy option, but no longer should fantasy GMs expect 35+ home runs and a 100+ RBI’s from the aging first baseman. The 2012 season was the first time in three years that Konerko was unable to hit either 30+ home runs or drive in 100+ runs.

With all the injuries (particularly his wrist issues), expect Konerko to break down this year. Clearly, his better days are behind him.

 

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota Twins

Justin Morneau: Minnesota Twins

While not up there in age like Konerko, Morneau is still a first baseman in decline. Morneau is simply not the slugging first baseman fantasy GMs have known him to be.

Due to concussions and other various ailments, Morneau has not been able to get back on track after a fabulous 2009 campaign. Morneau has only played in 276 games and in that time he has only averaged 13. 6 HR’s and 54.3 RBI’s in the last three seasons.

Factoring in his struggles at home (11 home runs in 143 career games at Target Field) combined with his injury issues, Morneau is nothing more than a low-end corner infielder late on Draft Day.

A.J. Burnett: Pittsburgh Pirates

After resurrecting his career in Pittsburgh out of the media spotlight in New York, Burnett went back to being a reliable fantasy pitching option in 2012. Burnett enjoyed a terrific rebound season en route to winning 16 games while posting a 3.51 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, but expecting a repeat season could be fool’s gold. While Burnett did lower his walks and home runs allowed in 2012, Burnett has never been one for consistency. He’ll still be a serviceable option, but Burnett will have a hard time replicating the numbers he posted last year. Call it a hunch.

My name is Dan Stack and I live in Nyack, New York, which is about 20 miles north of New York City. I am a writer/blogger who is passionate about many things, namely sports. I am also very passionate when it comes to fantasy sports, whether it be baseball, football or basketball. You can find me writing/blogging here at FantasyPros911.com, BleacherReport.com, Mets360.com, GiantsFootballBlog.com and WeAreDePaul.com. I have also been the Managing Editor of my county's weekly newspaper (Rockland County Times). I hold a BA degree in Journalism/Broadcasting from C.W. Post University in Brookville, New York. I have other passion besides sports as I am big in to music, pop culture, dogs and and other fun stuff. I love New York and all that it has to offer. You can often find me writing/blogging, watching TV, attending movies or at a ballgame. E-Mail if you have any questions or comments.
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