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April 4, 2013 posted by Nick Raducanu

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 4/5

2013 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 4/5
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I’m baaaaaaack! Back by popular demand, I’ll be bringing you this column each and every week day here on FP911 throughout the spring and summer. Just like last year, I’ll be combing over box scores and scouring local beat writers’ reports each morning to help ensure  you have all the information you need in order to make the right decisions for your fantasy baseball lineup. So make sure you check back at this very spot for Hot/Cold Streaks, Injury News, Closer Updates, Daily Stats, and more so that you can stay one step ahead of the rest of your league!

An as always, make sure you’re getting your dose of daily fantasy baseball by playing the FP911 Challenge!

 

5 Good Nights, 5 Bad Nights

It’s a fact of life that every baseball player goes through hot and cold streaks. It’s important not to let those streaks influence a player’s fantasy baseball value too much, but it is important to be aware of how a player is doing within a short period of time (a seven-day sorter is always a good tool to use). A player’s short-term numbers can be the difference between winning and losing in daily games, and it can also make a huge difference in year-long leagues. For instance, if you can keep finding the second basemen on hot streaks and dropping them for another streaking second basemen once they get cold, you can piece together a very useful middle infielder-by-committee for your roto team. So before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify who had a good night and who had a bad night on Thursday, April 4th.

5 Good Nights

  • J.P. Arencibia: 2-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 2 RBI
  • Josh Reddick: 2-3, 2 R, HR, 4 RBI
  • Chris Davis: 2-3, R, HR, 4 RBI
  • Cliff Lee: 8.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 8 K’s, W
  • Travis Wood: 6.0 IP, H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K’s, W

Honorable Mention: Jayson Werth, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Andrew McCutchen, Ryan Zimmerman, Gordon Beckham, Erick Aybar, Andy Pettitte, James McDonald, Dillon Gee, Jordan Zimmerman, Mike Pelfrey, Eric Stults, Jeremy Guthrie

5 Bad Nights

  • Carlos Marmol: 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, K, SV
  • Brett Myers: 5.0 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 2 BB
  • Mark Buehrle: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 6 ER, BB, 4 Ks
  • Drew Stubbs: 0-5
  • Manny Machado: 0-5

Dishonorable Mention: Torii Hunter, Brandon Maurer, Joe Blanton, Ryan Dempster, Roberto Hernandez, Rick Porcello

 

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

  • Jose Valverde signed a minor league deal with the Detroit Tigers yesterday, which would lead to speculation that the Tigers’ Phil Coke-led closer by committee situation won’t last too long. If you’re searching for saves, it’s definitely worth taking a flier on Valverde.
  • Carlos Marmol let up runs for the second time in two outings last night (though he did get the save for his owners). If you haven’t grabbed Kyuji Fujikawa, you might want to do so as I can’t imagine the Cubs will give Marmol too much longer of a leash.
  • Chad Billingsley made a rehab start to mixed results last night, but he appears on schedule to make his major league debut next Wednesday.
  • Stephen Drew (concussion) began his rehab assignment yesterday and is hoping to join the Red Sox for their season opener on Monday.

 

3 Up, 3 Down, and Throwing Darts

Starting and sitting the right pitchers on a day-to-day basis is often the linchpin of winning any fantasy baseball league – roto, head-to-head, daily, and otherwise. In order to give you some help picking your pitchers for today, I’ve gone through all of the stats that I could (pitchers’ career numbers vs. certain hitters and lineups, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, etc) and have made nine recommendations. I’m not going to proclaim that I’ll get these 100% correct all season, but anyone that does should be sitting on an island that they own in the Pacific – not writing fantasy baseball articles. The goal here is to play the odds the entire season and slowly build your “win” percentage closer to 100% than to 50%.

Here’s today’s recommendations with, 3 Up (three pitchers you shouldn’t think of sitting), 3 Down (three pitchers with some warning flags for today), and Throwing Darts (three pitchers that I’ll be taking a flier on):

3 Up

Zack Greinke vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Matt Moore vs. Cleveland Indians

Doug Fister vs. New York Yankees

3 Down

Dan Haren at Cincinnati Reds

Ivan Nova at Detroit Tigers

Felix Doubront at Toronto Blue Jays

Throwing Darts

Jake Arrieta vs. Minnesota Twins

Dan Straily at Houston Astros

Jeremy Hefner vs. Miami Marlins

 

Swings and Misses

A hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher don’t always tell the whole story, but it can be informative if used correctly. I’m of the opinion that some information is better than none, and while there are other pieces to the puzzle of setting your daily lineup (splits, weather, etc.), I think a hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher can be very indicative of future success or failure. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. As such, I’ve gone through today’s matchups and picked the best (and worst) matchups I could find. Anything less than 10-12 career at-bats is a relatively small sample-size (so take those with a grain of salt), but sometimes that’s all that is available.

Swings

  • Ryan Braun is 2-for-5 (.400) with two home runs in his career against today’s starter, Wade Miley.
  • Albert Pujols is 6-for-13 (.462) with two home runs in his career against today’s starter, Derek Holland.
  • Allen Craig is 4-for-10 (.400) with three home runs in his career against today’s starter, Barry Zito.
Misses
  • Kevin Youkilis is 2-for-16 (.125) in his career against today’s starter, Doug Fister.
  • Arian Beltre is 1-for-18 (.056) against today’s starter, Jason Vargas.
  • Troy Tulowitzki is 2-for-11 (.182) in his career against today’s starter, Jason Marquis.

 

If you have any questions, comments, complaints, or have a suggestion on a feature you’d like to see covered in these daily reports, please contact me @FantasyTrade411 or email me at FantasyTrade411@gmail.com and I’ll be happy to respond.

 

Nick Raducanu finished 2011 ranked in the top 20 on ESPN’s Fantasy site, and is the mystery man behind the TraderX persona at www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411.

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