Fantasy Football
August 4, 2012 posted by Collin Hager

2012 Fantasy Football: ADP Update, August 4th

2012 Fantasy Football: ADP Update, August 4th
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A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals, WR

Another week and another look at what is going on in current drafts. After spending the first few weeks looking at some overall trends, this week will examine not just what is happening in standard drafts but also some notes with regards to PPR formats and what major differences surface as the scoring format changes.

Here is what you need to know this week to help you drafting as we roll into August.

  • Overall, in every format, we are starting to see Trent Richardson normalize. He has fallen back two spots over the last week to number nine overall. The player picking up the bulk of his slack is Darren McFadden. The Oakland runner has moved up an average of 1.4 spots in each draft.
  • We are also seeing the impacts of Adrian Peterson’s injury and Marshawn Lynch’s “legal problems” on their draft stock. The two have both fallen outside any first round to numbers 13 and 14 overall. Drew Brees has overtaken them and we now see two quarterbacks potentially being classified as first-round options.
  • The major swing in PPR leagues is not coming from the wide receiver position but from the tight ends. Both Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski move up several spots in the rankings and become borderline second round and certainly third round selections. Graham stays ahead of the New England tight end, but both are within a couple spots of the other.
  • Sticking with PPR, the other major mover is A.J. Green. He moves inside the top-25 selections overall and comes in as the third wide receiver taken. Calvin Johnson and Victor Cruz are going ahead of Green in all formats. Interesting to see though that this is different from last week. Green was going ahead of Cruz just a week ago but fell six spots in the last seven days.
  • Starting to see some movement in Peyton Manning. He has moved up two spots this week to 72 overall and has gone as high as number 41. While there is definitely risk when it comes to Manning being a number one quarterback for a fantasy team, the early returns seem to be positive out of camp. His stock is rising along with that of receiver Erik Decker, who jumps into the top 100, and number one receiver Demaryius Thomas. Thomas has moved up a spot as well.
  • Andre Johnson has fallen behind Greg Jennings to the number five receiver spot and the 31st selection overall. Johnson already has an injury that he is dealing with at camp. The track record for Johnson is not in his favor, making Jennings definitely a more reliable selection. Watch Johnson continue to fall if this lingers.
  • One thing to keep in mind is the range at which these players are being drafted. While the average position is important, a wider span shows the variability of a player and where some perceive their value to be. As you would expect, the ranges around the top picks are largely small. That said, Cam Newton has gone as high as pick 11 and as low as pick 123. Others with a big span include Gronkowski (97 picks), Green (51), Aaron Rodgers (36), and Darren Sproles (45).
  • On the other end of the scale are some tighter ranges. Torrey Smith (73 overall, 17 pick range), Marques Colston (49 and 20), and Brandon Marshall (33 and 17).

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