Fantasy Football
August 16, 2012 posted by Collin Hager

2012 Fantasy Football: ADP Report, August 16th

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Tom Brady, New England Patriots QB

We all have people in our leagues that walk in to a draft without any information and end up taking the injured running back in round one or draft a guy that has already been drafted. Telling them that information is power only goes so far. Reading the articles on this site though, you know that. Better, more information is gathered as we go through training camps. Leveraging the data is key. Not to say we want analysis paralysis, but the best owners know every little bit helps.

In drafting, while every league is different, knowing what the tendencies of the general public are will help develop your strategy. Sure, your league will always be a little bit different. There is still a default setting though that will help. Another week in, let’s check in on the major changes to the Big Board.

  • A new set of information showing drafts over the last week provides greater insight to the recent trends. Only three players have gone number one overall in the recent sample: Ray Rice, Aaron Rodgers, and Arian Foster. Hard to believe that LeSean McCoy is not in the group; the highest spot for him has been number two off the board.
  • We are seeing a big drop in Maurice Jones-Drew’s ADP. The contract dispute is dragging on and with rumors it may linger into the regular season, owners are taking notice. Jones-Drew fell nearly five full spots to eights overall with an average pick of 9.27. A bigger surprise is that one draft had him go at 23 overall. It is a wide span, but it shows the concern.
  • Seven of the top ten players off the board are still coming from the Running Back position. While Drew Brees, Rodgers, and Calvin Johnson are breaking things up, the guys in the backfield are forcing owners to act.
  • Seeing a cluster of receivers going between 31 and 33 overall. Andre Johnson, Julio Jones, Greg Jennings, A.J. Green, and Brandon Marshall all fall within that category. Andre Johnson has fallen while Jones has shot up five spots in the recent look. Seeing Jones move this way makes sense. We are already hearing that Roddy White thinks he will see fewer touches as Jones’ role increases.
  • The injury to Ryan Matthews pushed him from the top 10 to number 30 overall. He has gone as low as the 41st selection in the last week. No doubt this injury bug continues to plague him and owners shying away makes sense. That said, if you can steal him at this point, getting 13 weeks of him is going to be huge. Just find a way to weather the initial storm.
  • Some other big movers include Doug Martin and James Starks to the negative with Pierre Garcon and Rob Gronkowski on the positive side. Martin’s star seems to have dulled some. While calling him a number one or two back out of the gate may have been premature, as a flex or third option he has plenty of value. Starks’ numbers took a hit with the signing of Cedric Benson. Garcon looked strong in his initial outing with Robert Griffin III at quarterback. He should settle in nicely and is a good deep selection at 82 overall. Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are now within a tenth of a spot of each other.
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