Getting hitters to swing and miss at pitches is useful. More often than not, it leads to strikeouts. Strikeouts are good for fantasy baseball and a statistic that gets consistently underrated. Every year pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Gio Gonzalez are passed over for guys like Ricky Romero and Chris Carpenter. What you might get in ERA and WHIP isn’t that big of a difference in what you’ll lose in strike out numbers especially in leagues with innings caps. Fantasy GMs should be looking to maximize their strikeout numbers, not minimize them. Those looking for pitchers capable of missing bats…need to look at another list. The guys on this list are all essentially stay aways for fantasy purposes. There’s not much fantasy value to see here. The few guys on this list that are performing are doing so with unsustainable luck numbers. You’ve been warned. Here, there be Laggards…
|1. Henderson Alvarez||4.5%|
|2. Bartolo Colon||4.7%|
|3. Kevin Correia||5.3%|
|4. Clayton Richard||6.2%|
|5. Lucas Harrell||6.3%|
|6. Kevin Millwood||6.4%|
|7. Joe Saunders||6.5%|
|8. Jeremy Guthrie||6.6%|
|9. Luis Mendoza||6.7%|
|10. Barry Zito||6.8%|
Henderson Alvarez just doesnâ€™t miss very many bats. If you needed any confirmation that his 3.34 K/9 wasnâ€™t a fluke, his embarrassingly low swinging strike percentage is that confirmation. Whatever value he might have as an innings eater(RE:cheap wins and possibly competent ratios depending on how lucky he is) is pretty much canceled out by his utter lack of Kâ€™s.
Big, fat, cheating Bartolo Colon is going to enter his age 40 season in 2013 and heâ€™s currently serving a PED suspension. Thereâ€™s a very good chance that Colon has thrown his last pitch in the majors. His swinging strike percentage has been in decline since 2008 and its clear that his lost some zip on his fastball. He may still have some value as an innings eater, but heâ€™s simply a deep, deep AL or NL only play for next year.
Kevin Correia is a slightly better pitcher at home than on the road(4.39 xFIP at home, 4.76 xFIP on the road), but his K/9 is still under 5.00. Heâ€™s not even a guy you can trust in Petco. That says all you need to know about Kevin Correiaâ€™s future in professional baseball.
Clayton Richard just isnâ€™t the same guy he was before dealing with an injury plagued 2011 season. Before the injuries, his swinging strike percentage was up around 8.0%. Not great, but competent in deeper leagues. A 6.83 K/9(like he posted in 2010) is worthy of inclusion in most deep leagues. Especially if said pitcher is throwing half his games in Petco. Heâ€™s getting by this year because heâ€™s posting a .267 BABIP. Thatâ€™s almost 30 points lower than his career average and heâ€™s a groundball pitcher(1.91 GB:FB ratio). Richard looks like heâ€™s a solid bet to regress next year and take his sub-4.00 ERA with him.
Lucas Harrell spent parts of three seasons with the Chicago White Sox Triple-A team. The White Sox have competent starting pitching, but itâ€™s not like they couldnâ€™t use reasonably young, cheap arms. The fact that Harrell couldnâ€™t cut it with the White Sox should speak volumes about his future as a professional baseball player. Heâ€™s getting by with a .289 BABIP and a 2.55 GB:FB ratio. Those numbers scream regression. Well, those numbers and the fact that Harrell isnâ€™t very good at pitching.
Kevin Millwood is about as mediocre as mediocre gets. His K/9 is a staggeringly boring 6.00. His swinging strike percentage hasnâ€™t been over 7% since 2006. His o-swing percentage is a fairly bad 29.4%. There is nothing exciting about Kevin Millwood and he hasnâ€™t been relevant to fantasy baseball for years.
Joe Saunders doesnâ€™t miss bats, doesnâ€™t strike out very many(5.94 K/9) and should be of little interest to fantasy GMs. The only time heâ€™s been remotely interesting for fantasy baseball is when heâ€™s posting a sub .300 BABIP. His BABIP is .306 this year. Heâ€™s also an absolute pitching staff killer in leagues with innings caps. Spending 200 or so of your value innings on a guy like Saunders is the fantasy equivalent of flushing money down the toilet.
How old do you think Jeremy Guthrie is? 28? 29? Whatever number you said is wrong. Guthrie is 33! Heâ€™s not a prospect. Heâ€™s not even a never was. Heâ€™s essentially a guy who takes the ball every fifth day. Guthrieâ€™s poor luck on balls in the air(14.4% HR:FB ratio in 2012, 10.7% for his career) and that accounts for some of his struggles. The more glaring problem is that he doesnâ€™t miss bats and doesnâ€™t rack up Kâ€™s.
The only benefit to having Luis Mendoza on your roster is that you can yell, â€œMendozaaaaaaah!â€ like McBain every time he gets lit up(which is often). There is nothing, not even in Mendozaâ€™s minor league numbers, that indicates heâ€™ll be anything more than waiver wire fire in fantasy leagues. The 1.87 GB:FB ratio is nice, but it would be a lot nicer, and more useful, if it came with any kind of strike out numbers.
Barry Zito should not Â be owned in any circumstance, in any league. There is simply zero fantasy value.
Latest posts by Matthew Dewoskin (Posts)
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