MLB
February 10, 2012 posted by Collin Hager

2012 Fantasy Baseball – HVaC Top-50 Hitters

2012 Fantasy Baseball – HVaC Top-50 Hitters
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Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants

After spending time to explain the method to the madness, here is a look at how the top-50 works out in the HVaC model. Overall, you will notice that the cream of the crop stays relatively constant. There are a few changes in some of the ranks, but largely by just a spot or two. Remember that the model is taking into account positional scarcity as well as how a category plays out in any given position and is based on current FP911 projections.

Some overall thoughts:

  • Five catchers show up in the top-50 hitters with Mike Napoli leading the way. When you look at the position from any perspective, it is certainly thin once the top backstops are off the board. Given the ability for Napoli, Buster Posey, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, and Miguel Montero to carry a team offensively, they should be given credit for that. Noticeably absent from the top-tier – Joe Mauer.
  • Another position heavy in the top hitters is Third Base, which really drops off once the best of the best are off the board. Everyone is projecting big things for Brett Lawrie, and this model is no exception. Lawrie checks in with an HVaC score of 5.81, just behind Pablo Sandoval and good for third overall at the position. What puts him behind Sandoval? Lawrie projects a 20 point lower average and steals at Third Base have little weight.
  • The average Shortstop provides more steals than the average player at any other position. The 16 steal average means it is hard to dig a hole in this category. It is also why Starlin Castro checks in just behind Troy Tulowitzki. While Tulo will give you five category performance, it is hard to ignore how Castro can compete with a similar average and run total while blowing out the steals number.
  • David Ortiz falls into the top-50 and would be the number six overall First Baseman if he qualified at the position. Utility positions are tough to draft this early, but Ortiz’s production has yet to drop off and he will certainly produce in at least three if not four key categories.
  • Most surprising names in the Top-50: Zack Cozart and Jesus Montero. With the expected production levels, both fall well inside the upper tier of players. Still, an even more shocking name was Emilio Bonifacio. If he qualifies at shortstop, the projected near 50 steals and .280 average make him enticing. Not to mention the fact he should score plenty of runs in the revamped Marlins lineup.
  • Big surprises not in the Top-50: What about Mark Teixeira? He comes in as the number 14 player at the position and largely because he continues to produce in basically two categories. His BABIP has fallen off in each of the last four years and the power has not jumped up in that stadium enough to offset. Yes, he still likely comes in with 100 RBI and 30 home runs, but that is common at First Base. Carlos Santana is another. He does not differentiate enough in the three power categories from the others to offset the major drop in average.

Here is how the rest of the Top HVaC Players shake out:

PROJECTIONS HVaC Final
Name AB HR R RBI SB AVG Score Rank
Miguel Cabrera 568 34 117 129 4 0.331 2.53 1
Jose Bautista 533 41 115 112 6 0.281 2.59 2
Mike Napoli 481 31 80 88 5 0.281 3.31 3
Joey Votto 579 32 118 120 9 0.314 3.43 4
Albert Pujols 578 38 110 113 7 0.311 3.95 5
Hanley Ramirez 549 21 89 89 32 0.293 4.10 6
Evan Longoria 554 32 98 103 7 0.280 4.38 7
Matt Kemp 597 34 101 109 33 0.300 4.58 8
Dustin Pedroia 610 20 111 99 21 0.303 4.63 9
Prince Fielder 571 37 115 123 2 0.291 4.83 10
Pablo Sandoval 567 25 86 95 4 0.307 5.34 11
Brett Lawrie 539 25 88 93 24 0.282 5.81 12
Brian McCann 495 23 77 84 4 0.277 6.02 13
Adrian Beltre 529 28 80 92 4 0.291 6.13 14
Troy Tulowitzki 542 30 96 109 10 0.304 6.28 15
Starlin Castro 642 10 97 78 23 0.305 6.60 16
Adrian Gonzalez 598 31 108 117 1 0.304 6.80 17
Jesus Montero 484 22 73 76 1 0.283 7.33 18
Jose Reyes 540 9 93 59 38 0.300 7.68 19
David Wright 557 23 89 89 18 0.280 8.00 20
Buster Posey 497 17 76 83 4 0.292 8.19 21
Justin Upton 577 31 100 105 22 0.288 8.33 22
Robinson Cano 618 27 96 115 6 0.309 8.50 23
David Ortiz 508 27 90 95 1 0.280 8.50 23
Aramis Ramirez 514 23 76 90 1 0.290 8.81 25
Asdrubal Cabrera 573 18 83 78 14 0.279 8.85 26
Jacoby Ellsbury 608 22 111 75 45 0.309 9.11 27
Matt Wieters 494 20 73 75 1 0.271 9.28 28
Andrew McCutchen 590 22 104 94 30 0.281 9.30 29
Ryan Zimmerman 543 22 86 87 4 0.291 9.34 30
Paul Konerko 535 29 89 94 1 0.286 9.53 31
Elvis Andrus 600 5 87 66 40 0.283 9.75 32
Eric Hosmer 578 25 88 102 14 0.296 10.38 33
Billy Butler 590 20 95 104 1 0.303 11.55 34
Brandon Phillips 622 18 96 66 17 0.280 11.56 35
Michael Morse 544 29 82 94 2 0.283 11.73 36
Miguel Montero 475 16 71 74 1 0.280 12.13 37
Howie Kendrick 571 15 78 78 15 0.292 12.69 38
Zack Cozart 542 13 66 79 15 0.277 12.73 39
Lance Berkman 481 24 88 95 4 0.287 13.00 40
Erick Aybar 551 8 70 60 24 0.281 13.43 41
Emilio Bonifacio 577 4 80 61 39 0.279 13.78 42
Jimmy Rollins 563 14 84 55 28 0.261 13.83 43
Derek Jeter 551 7 83 57 14 0.289 14.05 44
Yunel Escobar 541 11 91 57 5 0.288 14.13 45
Ian Kinsler 554 26 107 71 25 0.273 14.19 46
Kevin Youkilis 451 19 80 85 4 0.282 14.63 47
Alexei Ramirez 599 16 78 75 11 0.272 15.03 48
Alex Rodriguez 452 23 74 81 5 0.274 15.03 49
Shin-Soo Choo 547 19 87 88 22 0.291 15.08 50
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