Daily Fantasy Baseball
July 6, 2012 posted by Nick Raducanu

2012 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 7/6

2012 Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes 7/6
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J.P. Arencibia, Toronto Blue Jays C

Each and every day, I’ll be combing over box scores and scouring local beat writers’ reports to make sure you have all the information you need in order to make the right decisions for your fantasy baseball lineup. Make sure you check back at this very spot for Hot/Cold Streaks, Injury News, Closer Updates, Daily Stats, and more so that you can stay one step ahead of the rest of your league.

As always, make sure you’re getting your daily fantasy sports fix by playing the FP911Challenge. Not sure how to play? Don’t worry, because Dan Stack’s got you covered with a quick tutorial and some tips for this week.

Looking Back

Before we get to today’s games, let’s take a spin through last night’s box scores to identify the Studs and Duds from Thursday, July 5th.

5 Good Nights

  • J.P. Arencibia: 2-4, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI
  • Jeff Karstens: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 8 K’s, W
  • Jose Quintana: 8.0 IP, 2 H, ER, 8 K’s, W
  • Mike Trout: 2-2, 2 R, 2 RBI, 3 steals
  • Mark Buehrle: 7.2 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 8 K’s, W

Honorable Mention: Darin Mastroianni, David Wright, Matt Wieters, Ian Desmond, Brian Dozier, Prince Fielder, Kendrys Morales, Brian McCann, Melky Cabrera, Eric Hosmer, Jimmy Rollins, Jason Heyward, Justin Christian, Salvador Perez, Matt Harrison, Edinson Volquez, Mat Latos, Michael Fiers, Josh Tomlin, Scott Diamond, Bud Norris, Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Nate Eovaldi, Luke Hochevar

5 Bad Nights

  • Jonathan Papelbon: 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, BB, K
  • Jake Arrieta: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 6 ER, 3 BB’s, 3 K’s
  • Garrett Richards: 4.1 IP, 10 H, 7 ER, 2 BB’s, 3 K’s
  • Jose Bautista: 0-5
  • Adam Jones: 0-5

Dishonorable Mention: Brett Lawrie, Santiago Casilla, Christian Friedrich, Matt Garza, Henderson Alvarez, Rick Porcello, R.A. Dickey, Ross Detwiler, Wade Miley

Daily Grab Bag

Check back here for daily updates on injuries, closer battles, player news, and anything else that might affect your fantasy baseball team.

  • Dustin Pedroia has been placed on the 15-day DL after an examination on the thumb that’s been bothering him for a few weeks apparently didn’t go so well. No word on how long he’ll be out, but this isn’t good news for the Red Sox or Pedroia’s owners.
  • In other thumb-related news…Major League steals leader, Dee Gordon, will miss the next six weeks after undergoing surgery on his thumb.
  • Mike Giancarlo Stanton is nursing a sore knee and hinted at the fact that he might need arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his knee. This doesn’t mean that he’s definitely going to have the surgery, but I’d hold off on trading for him until we know more.
  • C.C. Sabathia (groin) is progressing in his rehab and is currently targeting a July 16th or 17th return to the Yankees’ rotation.
  • Dan Haren was placed on the 15-day DL with a back injury, and while there is no timetable for his return, this doesn’t seem like something that should keep him out long. Kevin Jepsen (no word on if he’s related to Carly Rae) will take Haren’s place in the rotation for the time being.
  • Drew Storen (elbow) fared well in his first rehab outing last night and looks like he’ll be returning to the Nationals right after the All-Star break. Whether or not he reclaims the closer’s role from Tyler Clippard is a whole ‘nother story…
  • Derek Holland (elbow) is on-track to start this Saturday’s game against the Twins. I don’t see a whole lot of value in Holland, to be honest, but he’s worth a look in deeper leagues.
  • Trout/Harper/Rizzo/Bauer Watch: With two of baseball’s best prospects being called-up earlier this season, I’m going to dedicate this space to keeping tabs on the youngsters. Here’s to hoping that you were able to grab some of them! (UPDATE: Anthony Rizzo and Trevor Bauer are the latest uber prospects to get the call, so I’ve added them to the list, as well.)
    Bryce Harper: Harper went 2-5 with one run and two RBI yesterday. (.283, 42 R, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 8 steals on the season).
    Mike Trout: Trout went 2-2 with two runs, two RBI, and 3 steals yesterday.  (.348, 54 Runs, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 26 steals on the season).
    Anthony Rizzo: Rizzo went 1-4 with one run yesterday. (.314, 6 R, 3 HR, 6 RBI on the season).
    Trevor Bauer: Bauer will make his next start on at home this Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. (0-1, 9.82 ERA, 2.45 WHIP, 7 K’s on the season)

Looking Ahead

Starting and sitting the right pitchers on a day-to-day basis is often the linchpin of winning any league – roto, head-to-head, daily, and otherwise. In order to give you some help picking your pitchers for today, I’ve gone through all the stats I could (pitchers’ career numbers vs. certain hitters and lineups, home/road splits, lefty/righty splits, etc) and made nine recommendations. I’m not going to proclaim that I’ll get these 100% correct all season, but anyone that does should be sitting on an island they own in the Pacific – not writing fantasy baseball articles. The goal here is to play the odds the entire season and slowly build your “win” percentage closer to 100% than to 50%.

Here’s Tuesdays recommendations with, 3 Up (three pitchers you shouldn’t think of sitting), 3 Down (three pitchers with some warning flags for today), and Throwing Darts (three pitchers that I’ll be taking a flier on):

3 Up

Clayton Kershaw at Arizona Diamondbacks

Stephen Strasburg vs. Colorado Rockies

Johan Santana vs. Chicago Cubs

3 Down

Francisco Liriano at Texas Rangers

Josh Beckett vs. New York Yankees

Ricky Nolasco at St. Louis Cardinals

Throwing Darts

Tommy Milone vs. Seattle Mariners

Justin Masterson vs. Tampa Bay Rays

Martin Perez vs. Minnesota Twins

Today’s Swings and Misses

A hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher don’t always tell the whole story, but it can be informative if used correctly. I’m of the opinion that some information is better than none, and while there are other pieces to the puzzle of setting your daily lineup (splits, weather, etc.), I think a hitter’s career numbers against a pitcher can be very indicative of future success or failure. Some guys just own certain pitchers, and vice versa. As such, I’ve gone through today’s matchups and picked the best (and worst) matchups I could find. Anything less than 12-15 career at-bats is a relatively small sample-size (so take those with a grain of salt), but sometimes that’s all that is available.

  • Matt Holliday is 10-for-21 (.476) with two home runs in his career against today’s starter, Ricky Nolasco.
  • Robinson Cano  is 23-for-71 (.323) with three home runs and 13 RBI in his career against today’s starter, Josh Beckett.
  • Carlos Lee is 18-for-40 (.450) with two home runs in his career against today’s starter, Jake Westbrook.
  • Justin Upton is 1-for-21 (.048) in his career against today’s starter, Clayton Kershaw.
  • Melky Cabrera is 2-for-19 (.105) in his career against today’s starter, Erik Bedard.
  • Alfonso Soriano is 2-for-16 (.125) in his career against today’s starter, Johan Santana.

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the great content on FantasyPros911.com, starting with some of our most recent updates:

  • Albert Lang takes a look at today’s pitching matchups in the latest edition of Pitch or Ditch.
  • Matthew Dewoskin examines the always-turning Closer Carousel in this week’s Blown Opportunities.
  • Albert Lang’s weekly Hot N Cold Fantasy Baseball All-Stars help give you an idea of who’s hot and who’s not.
  • Collin Hager invented his own ranking system, and in case you haven’t seen it yet, you absolutely HAVE to check out his HVaC rankings.
  • Lenny Melnick recaps last night’s action and whole lot more in today’s episode of his award-winning podcast.
  • The calendar has turned to July, which means it’s time to start talking fantasy football! Before you start mock drafting, make sure you check out Paul Greco’s pre-season rankings, including Quarterback, Running Back, Wide Receiver, Tight End, and Strength of Schedule.
If you have any questions, comments, complaints, or have a suggestion on a feature you’d like to see covered in these daily reports, please email me at FantasyTrade411@gmail.com and I’ll be happy to respond.
Nick Raducanu finished 2011 ranked in the top 20 on ESPN’s Fantasy site, and is the mystery man behind the TraderX persona at www.FantasyTrade411.com. You can follow him and ask him for fantasy advice on Twitter @FantasyTrade411.

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